ear Ye! Hear Ye!
One year has passed since the goal of doubling the playerbase in one year's
time was made. Some people said we couldn't do it ... others thought we
could. Turns out both sides were right! We did it, but we didn't keep it.
So ... here are the stats. I will offer commentary, analysis, history, and
speculation below.
--------+--------------------------------------------------------------------+
Active | |
Players | Genesis Player Statistics for Year 2007-2008 |
per Hour| |
.-------+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|23.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|23.00 | | | | | | | | | | |X | | |
|22.50 | | | | | | | | | |X |X | | |
|22.00 | | | | | | | | | X |XX |X | | |
|21.50 | | | | | | | | | XX|XX |X | | |
|21.00 | | | | | | | | | XX|XX |XXX | | |
|20.50 | | | | | | | | | XX|XX X|XXX | | |
|20.00 | | | | | | | | | XX|XX X|XXXX | | |
|19.50 | | | | | | | | | XX|XX X|XXXX | | |
|19.00 | | | | | | | X | | XX|XXXX|XXXX | | |
|18.50 | | | | | | | X | | XX|XXXX|XXXX | | |
|18.00 | | | X| | | | X | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | |
|17.50 | | | X| | | | X | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | |
|17.00 | | | X|X | X | | X | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | |
|16.50 | X| | X|X | X | |XXX | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | |
|16.00 | X|XX | XX X|X X| XX | |XXX | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | |
|15.50 | X|XXX | XX X|X X| XX | X|XXX | X| XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | |
|15.00 | X|XXX |XXXXX|X X|XXX | X|XXXX| X| XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | |
|14.50 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX | X|XXXX| X| XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | |
|14.00 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X XX|XXXX|XX X| XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | |
|13.50 | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X XX|XXXX|XXXX|X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX | X |
|13.00 | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX XX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |
|12.50 | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |
|12.00 | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |
|11.50 | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |
|11.00 | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
+-------+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|Month |Oct.|Nov.|Dec. |Jan.|Feb.|Mar. |Apr.|May.|Jun. |Jul.|Aug. |Sep.|Oct.|
+-------+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
METHOD:
Each hour, the Genesis Census Module takes a snapshot of the playerbase, and
records the number of non-linkdead non-wizards who are present in the game.
The above statistics represent the average number of players online at any
given time for an entire week. A week is assumed to be Sunday thru Saturday.
For this reason, some months appear longer than others due to the fact that
there were more Sundays in certain months than others. A week that began
in one month and ended in another is figured into the stats of the month in
which it began. So, for example, you can see that the first week of March
2008 averaged 14.00 players online at any given time, while the average
for the third week of April 2008 was 19.00.
CONSIDERATIONS:
Because this is the first year that we have had the Genesis Census Module
active, we do not have a good idea of what an average year looks like. There
has been a sense of steady decline since the millenium, but there is no raw
data to analyze to know if there has been a plateau effect, or if indeed
the playerbase has been less year by year. Additionally, we do not know
if certain seasons of the average year naturally tend to increase the
playerbase due to vacations, weather, etc. Now that we have this year on the
books, we have a baseline with which to compare future years for more
helpful analysis.
The first week on record was the second week of October, which in 2007
averaged 13.50 players on average (POA.) The POA for the same week in 2008
was also 13.50. So ... we are quite similar to where we started when the
goal was announced. Does this mean that we utterly failed to meet the goal?
Failed, we did. The POA for the year peaked in the first week of August
2008 at 23.00. This is quite nearly double from the start of the year. Had
we maintained that POA, the goal would have been effectively met. But, we
did not. The fact that the goal was nearly reached, and then failed to be
sustained is extremely good material for analysis, conjecture, and
speculation. I will offer some of this below.
GORBOTH'S GUESSES ...
I think we did fairly well. Some strategies worked. Some strategies proved
disastrous. Things that I noticed which seemed to help the POA:
1. Friendlier player/wizard relations. This, above almost anything
else in the game, seems to make just about everything better.
2. Events. There are certain players who show up for events, and then
do not log in until the next one begins.
3. Vacations. This is a double-edged sword. Some vacations hurt the
POA, but some (Christmas especially) coincided with a significant
boost. Summer also coincided with a boost, but this, I believe, was
largely due to ...
4. Opening of new guilds/content that players have deep feelings for.
The single greatest effect occurred when the long-awaited Angmar's
Army returned to Genesis. It was here that the playerbase took a
very sudden jump from 14.00 POA at the beginning of June to 22.00
POA by month's end. A similar but less pronounced effect was felt
at the renovation of the Calian and Vampire guilds, both of whom
enjoyed immediate boosts in member activity.
Things I noticed which seemed to hurt the POA:
1. Hostile player/wizard relations. Toward the end of the Summer, some
very negative things happened that strained the faith many players
put in the wizard community, all the way up to myself as Keeper.
This, more than any other single thing, I feel is why the boom
that occurred mid-summer dwindled back to baseline. Simple fact -
when players become disgusted with wizards and their ways, they
quit playing.
2. Competing interests. WoW has always remained an enticing option for
those players who get bored here or have become disenfranchised.
But as new offerings have sprung up, more have been siphoned off
of the donut. Toward the end of Summer, just as things were going
from bad to worse with wizard-player relations on the Eden Forum,
Warhammer Online arrived. Just recently, Fallout 3 came to store
shelves, perhaps accounting for the drop to 11.00 POA for the last
week in October (the lowest on record.)
3. Access problems. Somewhat recently, the officials at Chalmers
University in Sweden made some choices that caused problems for
the donut on numerous technical levels. These people are not
Genesis players themselves, and my fellow Keepers Mrpr and Tintin
are endeavoring to remedy the situation. However, the upshot has
been that the "Play Now" flash-based browser client that Saya
created for the game has not functioned for many weeks. This has
caused our number of "true" new players to dwindle to nearly
nothing in the last months. Similarly disastrous has been the
fact that this has cost some of our regulars their ability to
log in from their places of work. (the bosses are glad, though!)
So ... we started with great energy. We rose to impressive and satisfying
heights of playerbase growth. And, then, sadly, the three above factors
all happening simultaneously crushed our accomplishments and sent us back
to where we started. Or ... so it seems to me.
THOUGHTS FOR THE FUTURE
Though the year has been a rollercoaster, we've learned a lot along the way.
With regard to the three things that kept us from sustaining our gains, we
can remember and try to avoid the extremely preventable player-wizard
relations snafus. These things are both the most harmful and the most
preventable. The technical issues with Chalmers can and will be remedied.
And, as for cometing iterests ... well, (graphical) beauty fades, but text
is forever. WoW, Warhammer, Fallout3 ... all will seem a bit tiresome and
last-year's-game with a bit of time. Genesis is like home, and our wayward
community members know it. We will be waiting for them, ready to welcome
them ... put a robe around their shoulders and a ring on their finger ...
the fatted calf will be slaughtered and the feast will commence upon their
return.
But we can do better than to simply process and avoid the mistakes of the
past. Indeed, we can remember the things that have worked. The year to
come promises many exciting things. Balance and revision of all guilds
(finally!) The Hub project completed (we hope!) and ... we must remember,
we have not yet even BEGUN to advertise in earnest.
I feel that the future is very bright indeed, my fellow donut dwellers!
And so, it is with firm resolve that I set the following goal for October
2009:
** To double the playerbase, and sustain its growth in one year's time!
Not only can we do it ... we will! :-)
Your humble Keeper - one year in,
G.
Next message Planned maintenance 
Previous message Update on ships
