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Fellow Genesis Enthusiasts,
A new year is upon us, and the time has come for me to deliver my annual State
Of the Donut address for 2015. What a year it has been!
Before I begin, I'd like to touch on the fact that I myself have essentially
missed being part of things in Genesis since January of last year. As 2014
drew to its close, I found myself very much suffering from burnout in my
role here. That, coupled with RL developments to which I was able to
completely devote my energy and attention, took me on a very real and
lengthy hiatus from my efforts here from which I have just now begun to
return. I apologize for not being active as my role as Keeper dictates
I should be, but I do cannot regret the time away, for I suspect that it was
necessary for me to take this break if I was to ever continue in a Keeper
role with the potential of success in the future.
But enough about me! Let's talk about this amazing year and all the great
people who made it what it was. :-)
One thing to recognize is that as someone who did not witness or participate
in the year, I will limit my assessment and report to what I have been able
to understand and gather upon my return, and analysis of the data collected
by the census tracking module. I will not be able to comment at any great
length on how things have felt or what has transpired. As such, this might
be one of the shorter of my annual posts. Nonetheless ... here we go!
So lets start by just saying it. YES! yes yes yes. We've arrived. The game
is healthier than it has been since the dawn of the new millenium, and we
have at long last begun to recapture the potentials the game enjoyed in
its glory years of the 1990's. Are we fully there yet? No, no ... there is
still much to do and much to grow ... but we have ACHIEVED RENEWAL.
So lets look at the year. If you have never read one of the census graphs
before, a major concept deals with what we call Average Per Hour (APH for
short.) This translates to the number of players (not wizards) you would
find playing the game with you, on average, at any given hour of a single
day. To illustrate this, and to show a nice representation of our rate
of improvement, consider this graph which shows all 24 hours of one day,
December 18th, over three different years:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Comparisons between three time periods:
Dec 18 2015 = :
Dec 18 2014 = O
Dec 18 2013 = @
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
54| : . .
52| : : :
50| . : : : .
48| : : : : :
46| : . : : : : .
44| : : : : : : : : :
42| : : : : : : : : : :
40| : : : : : : : : : :
38| : : : : : : : : : :
36| : . : : : : : : : : : :
34| : : . . . . : : : : : : : : : :
32| : : : . : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :
30| : : : : : : : : : : : : : :. :O :O :O :. : :
28| : : : : : . . . : : : : : : : : : :O :O :O :O :O : :
26| : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :O :O :O :O :O :O :
24| : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :. :O :O :O :O :O :O :O :
22| : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :O :O :O :O :O :O :O.:O :O
20| :O :O :. : : : : : : : : : : :. :. :O :O :O :O :O :O :O@:O :O
18| :O :O :O :. :O : : : : : : : : :O :O :O :O :O :O :O@:O@:O@:O.:O
16| :O.:O :O :O :O :. : : : : : : :O :O :O :O :O :O :O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O
P 14| :O@:O@:O :O :O :O :O : : :. : :O :O :O :O :O :O :O :O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O
L 12| :O@:O@:O@:O :O@:O :O : .:. :O :O :O :O :O :O :O :O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O
A 10| :O@:O@:O@:O :O@:O.:O.:.@:O.:O :O :O :O :O.:O.:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O
Y 8| :O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O :O@:O :O :O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O
E 6| :O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O
R 4| :O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O
S 2| :O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O@:O
-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hour | 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean daily average players per hour on this day in 2015 = 38.12
Mean daily average players per hour on this day in 2014 = 19.95
Mean daily average players per hour on this day in 2013 = 12.12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just lovely! As you can see, 2015 shows a marked improvement from the two
prior years. The basic shape of logins over the course of the day remains
constant over all three years, with a dip in activity happening somewhere
between the hours of 5-15, and an activity peak between the hours of
18-22. This is the typical rhythm of Genesis. However, the number of
people in that distribution has grown profoundly. Logging in to the
game during the low ebb of this day in 2013 meant you would have seen just
six other people playing Genesis with you. But in 2015, the lowest ebb
would have still shown around 27 people playing the game with you. That is
quite a difference! To log in and see people enjoying what you enjoy means
a great deal to most players, and creates a sense of community and a living
world of friends and foes. If we look at the peaks, you could have seen
just 20 players on with you at the best hour here in 2013, but in 2015,
that high peak was up to 54!
But December 18th is just one day, and does not necessarily show anything
close to a yearly norm. Lets look at the entire year itself next, condensing
things way down so that one column no longer represents the average over a
given hour, but the average over an entire week:
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| |
| Average player activity by week for entire year, beginning Jan 01 2015 |
| |
+---------+-----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+---+
| 33.5 | |X | | | | | | | | | X | X |
| 33.0 | |X | | | | | | | | | X | X |
| 32.5 | |XX X| X | | | | | | | | X | X |
| 32.0 | |XX X| X X | | | | | | | | X | X |
| 31.5 | |XXXX| X X | | | | | | | | X | X |
| 31.0 | |XXXX| X X | | | | | | | |XXX | X |
| 30.5 | |XXXX|XXXX | | | | | | | |XXX | X |
| 30.0 | |XXXX|XXXX | | | | | | | |XXX X| X |
| 29.5 | |XXXX|XXXX | | | | | | | |XXXXX|XX |
| 29.0 | |XXXX|XXXX | | | | | | | |XXXXX|XXX|
| 28.5 | |XXXX|XXXX | | | | | | | |XXXXX|XXX|
| 28.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX| X | | | | | | |XXXXX|XXX|
| 27.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | | | | | | |XXXXX|XXX|
| 27.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | | | | | | |XXXXX|XXX|
| 26.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | | | | | | X|XXXXX|XXX|
| 26.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | | | | | X | X|XXXXX|XXX|
| 25.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | | | | | X |XX X|XXXXX|XXX|
| 25.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | | | | | XX |XX X|XXXXX|XXX|
| 24.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | | | | | XXX|XX X|XXXXX|XXX|
| 24.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |X | | | |XXXX|XX X|XXXXX|XXX|
| 23.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |X | | | |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 23.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |X | | | |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 22.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |X | | | |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 22.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |X | | | XX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 21.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|X | | | XX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 21.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|X | | | XX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 20.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|X X | | | XXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 20.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|X X | | | XXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 19.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XX X | | X | XXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 19.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XX X | | X | XXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| A 18.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XX X | X | X | XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| V 18.0 |X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XX X | X X| XX | XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| G 17.5 |X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX | XXX| XXX| XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 17.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX| XXX| XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| P 16.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX| XXX| XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| E 16.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| R 15.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 15.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| H 14.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| O 14.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| U 13.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| R 13.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 12.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| E 12.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| A 11.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| C 11.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| H 10.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 10.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| W 9.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| E 9.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| E 8.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| K 8.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
+---------+-----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+---+
| Month |Jan |Feb |Mar |Apr |May |Jun |Jul |Aug |Sep |Oct |Nov | |
+---------+-----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+---+
| |
| Mean yearly average players per hour = 24.21 |
| |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Yeah ... yeah ...
What I love about the graph above is what Cherek referred to as "the new
normal" in his mid-summer update. The typical summer slump that we see
reflected above has the low ebb for the year at two separate weeks with
an APH of only 16.
Wait ... an APH of *ONLY* 16? Let's rewind a bit, shall we?
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| |
| Average player activity by week for entire year, beginning Jan 01 2012 |
| |
+---------+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+
| A 17.5 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| V 17.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| G 16.5 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 16.0 | | | | | | | | | | | |X |
| P 15.5 | | | | | | | | | | | |X |
| E 15.0 | | | | | | | | | | | |X |
| R 14.5 | | | | | | | | | | | X|X |
| 14.0 | | | | | | | | | | | X|X |
| H 13.5 | | | | | | | | | | | X|X |
| O 13.0 | | | | |X | | | | | | XX|X XX|
| U 12.5 | | |X | X |X | | | | | | XX|X XX|
| R 12.0 | | |X | X |X | | | | | | XX|XXXX|
| 11.5 | | |XX | X |X | | | XX | | | XXX|XXXX|
| E 11.0 | | X|XX | XXX|X | | | XX |X X | XX|XXXX|XXXX|
| A 10.5 | | XX|XXX | XXX|X | |X | XX |XXX | XXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| C 10.0 | X| XX|XXXX| XXXX|X | |X X | XXX|XXX |XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| H 9.5 | X X|X XX|XXXX|XXXXX|X | |X X | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| 9.0 |X X X|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | |XX XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| W 8.5 |X X X|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | X|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E 8.0 |X XXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E 7.5 |X XXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| K 7.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
+---------+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+
| Month |Jan |Feb |Mar |Apr |May |Jun |Jul |Aug |Sep |Oct |Nov | |
+---------+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+
| |
| Mean yearly average players per hour = 10.15 |
| |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Behold. *barf* Behold behold. 2012, our most wretched year since the dawn of
the donut. Here the high peak for the entire year was one sad little week at
16 APH! Can you imagine? Oh, we all can. We lived it for far too long. If ever
you log in and are disappointed to see only 20 other players, or somesuch,
look back on this graph and *remember* how it used to feel.
But onward, to more goodness! Let's notice and discuss some other things.
The year shows a swell in the early and late months. These swells show
APH totals of 25-30 that last for two solid months at a time! The peaks
show three separate weeks of the year with a sustained APH of 33+ players!
We've never seen anything like this since the census began in 2007.
In fact, let's condense things further, and now look at the history of
the census, so we can see in perspective our recent year against the
field of time. Here, we have a graph in which each column represents not
a single week, but the APH averaged over three entire months of time.
Condensing to this resolution allows us to see every full-year we have
recorded on the census:
+---------+---------------------------------------------------------------+
| 30.0 | X|
| 25.5 | X X|
| 25.0 | X X|
| 24.5 | X X|
| 24.0 | X X|
| 23.5 | X X|
| 23.0 | X X|
| 22.5 | X X|
| 22.0 | X X|
| 21.5 | X X|
| 21.0 | X X X|
| 20.5 | X X X X|
| 20.0 | X X X X X|
| 19.5 | X X X X X|
| A 19.0 | X X X X X X|
| V 18.5 | X X X X X X|
| G 18.0 | X X X X X X|
| 17.5 | X X X X X X X|
| P 17.0 | X X X X X X X X|
| E 16.5 | X X X X X X X X X X|
| R 16.0 | X X X X X X X X X X X|
| 15.5 | X X X X X X X X X X X|
| H 15.0 |X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| O 14.5 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| U 14.0 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| R 13.5 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| 13.0 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| E 12.5 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| A 12.0 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| C 11.5 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| H 11.0 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| 10.5 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| Q 10.0 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| R 9.5 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| T 9.0 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| R 8.5 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| 8.0 |X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
| 7.5 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X|
+---------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Month |1 2 3 4|1 2 3 4|1 2 3 4|1 2 3 4|1 2 3 4|1 2 3 4|1 2 3 4|1 2 3 4|
+---------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Year | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
+---------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|Yr. Ave. | 15.8 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 24.2 |
+---------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
Fascinating. Really fascinating. The steady decline from 2008 to mid-2014
is undeniable, isn't it? How do we go from such a long and well-established
trend to the sudden rebound and renewal? What set the trend in place to
begin with? If a rebound was possible, why did it take so long?
A lot of this material is addressed at length in my SOTD address from
the end of last year, when the renewal was just beginning to take place.
Not wanting to do a full retread of that very in-depth assessment, I'll
go a slightly different direction, and talk about some of the important
history that preceeded the beginning of the census numbers, and laid
the groundwork for much of our last ten years. But, for those of you
who wish to re-familiarize yourself with those details, here is a link
to the former address:
https://www.genesismud.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=3011
Some history, then ...
There can be little doubt that 2007 was a pivotal year in Genesis history
in that it was the year the old Keepers stepped down, and for the first
time the game's vision and leadership was represented by someone (me) who
did not originate from Chalmers Datafornung (CD) in Gothenburg, Sweden.
The original Keepers had presided with declining interest and motivation
over the first 15 years of development, and felt that the game did not
have a sustainable future. These Keepers had done amazing things for the
game, but in the end their vision and motivation waned to the point that
they realized they were not a part of any successful future for Genesis,
and they (with reservations) threw the control panel to me. What I
inherited was a game where, months before, the Keeper had posted on
the Common Board a note telling everyone that Genesis was essentially
a dinosaur on the path to extinction, and that we should all abandon the
idea that the game had a bright future, and accept that it was doomed
to dwindle and die. Reading this lit a fire in many of us in the wizard
community, and as I became Keeper, I was determined to forge a vision
for the game's future that would not only avoid that fate, but propel
us back to the heights we had enjoyed in our early days, and beyond.
To achieve this, I enlisted the aid of the entire playerbase, calling
for everyone to mail me a list of their top priorities in what needed
fixing in the game, and steps to take for the fixes to be achieved. The
community rose to the challenge, by the end of 2007 a massive list of
suggested fixes and priorities had been compiled. If you want to really
delve into the history, this list is preserved in an update post that
I created three years later, in 2010, to show progress in all of the
various suggestions we had determined to be worthwhile. It is a
fascinating read, and may take you down memory lane:
https://www.genesismud.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=34&t=1208
What it also shows is how ridiculously ambitious our notions were.
We did not begin to have the workforce to take all of this on. But we
tried, and we struggled to do so, despite the odds. That list is still
not complete, and many of the items on it, nearly 10 years later, may
not align with our current notions of what the game would currently want
in the way of improvement and fixing. But, what is important to know
is the fact that the "fix" we envisioned was not something that was
possible in any short amount of time. In fact, it took years and
years to kick the ball very far down the road. But we kept on kicking.
Pieces of the puzzle kept being added. The problem was that each piece,
of its own accord, did not have the power to make the changes we
desired come to fruition.
Not seeing the work we were doing pay off in moving the playerbase
back toward health took a major toll on many of us who were working
so hard to further the vision. That decline from 2008 to 2014? That
sucked. Bad. In fact, by the end of 2014 I had become so demoralized
that, despite evidence that things were beginning to turn around,
I had reached a crisis point in my own motivation and strength to
press on. Like so many wizards before me, I could tell I had lost
my ability to keep going. It was at this point that I went on an
unannounced an unofficial hiatus that ended up lasting through
most of the next calendar year.
What I didn't know was that as pieces continued to be laid in place,
each interlocking with one another, shapes began to emerge, and the
individual pieces drew nearer to forming big-picture framework
just waiting for a spark to light the fuse. The spark finally came
with the client being folded into a downloadable app and Genesis going
public with new media and formats in new venues such as Facebook and
the Google App store. The spark caught, the fuse burned, and we
experienced the explosion of SYNERGY. All the developments, long
built and hard fought to establish, sprang to life and purpose as
hoards of new players began to stream into our lovingly crafted
channels. As 2014 drew to a close, we'd finally shifted into what
I'd always hoped and dreamed for.
Unfortunately, for me, it was too late. I had to take a break from
the game, even as it experienced a renaissance. So, I did not get
to enjoy the year that was 2015. Fortunately, there was a new and
energetic wizard freshly minted as Admin. Cherek. Cherek! Thank the
Gods for Cherek. His passion, dedication, blood, sweat, and tears
have been at the forefront of the success story that has been 2015.
This, with continued and steadfast support by long-standing Admin
constants Cotillion and Mercade are why 2015 has been possible. I
cannot say how grateful I am to these guys who have stood up and
grappled with a hot-air balloon that suddenly fills with air and
needs navigation as it begins to rise skyward. We would have
crashed very early on if they hadn't been able to successfully
step up to the challenges and needs of the new arrivals. New
arrivals? How many?
Cotillion has the exact numbers, but currently our app in the Google
store gets many thousands of "views" each day, and the app is
downloaded about 60 times each 24 hrs on average. This means that we
have 60+ completely new people trying Genesis every day! This is far
more than I would have ever dared hope, and has given us the promotion
that we needed all these years to test our systems and provide the
potential for the synergy that has proved to be possible.
We've hit a real stride now for the past three months. Let's take
a final look, then, at the daily APH since the beginning of
November of 2015 through the present, our end of the month here
in January of 2016:
+---------+-----+----+---+
| 33.5 | X | X | |
| 33.0 | X | X | |
| 32.5 | X | X | |
| 32.0 | X | X |X X|
| 31.5 | X | X X|X X|
| 31.0 |XXX | X X|XXX|
| 30.5 |XXX | X X|XXX|
| 30.0 |XXX X| X X|XXX|
| 29.5 |XXXXX|XX X|XXX|
| 29.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 28.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 28.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 27.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 27.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 26.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 26.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 25.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 25.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 24.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 24.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 23.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 23.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 22.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 22.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 21.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 21.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 20.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 20.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 19.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 19.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| A 18.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| V 18.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| G 17.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 17.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| P 16.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| E 16.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| R 15.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 15.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| H 14.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| O 14.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| U 13.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| R 13.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 12.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| E 12.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| A 11.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| C 11.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| H 10.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| 10.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| W 9.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| E 9.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| E 8.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| K 8.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
+---------+-----+----+---+
| Month |Nov |Dec |Jan|
+---------+-----+----+---+
| |
| APH = 30.70 |
| |
+------------------------+
So let's compare that versus all the days from 2008-2014 with a nice list
of comprehensive data, showing all days, all hours, and growth by % :
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Comparing player activity over two time periods: |
| A: Jan 01 2008 - Jan 01 2015 |
| B: Nov 01 2015 - Jan 26 2016 |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| Hour | A | B | % change | | Weekday | A | B | % change |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+ +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 00.00 | 16.16 | 36.41 | +125.25 %| | Sunday | 14.05 | 29.64 | +110.85 %|
| 01.00 | 13.43 | 32.08 | +138.85 %| | Monday | 13.52 | 30.46 | +125.22 %|
| 02.00 | 11.81 | 31.51 | +166.67 %| | Tuesday | 13.61 | 32.16 | +136.30 %|
| 03.00 | 11.24 | 29.50 | +162.31 %| | Wednesday | 14.02 | 31.68 | +125.94 %|
| 04.00 | 10.55 | 27.51 | +160.80 %| | Thursday | 13.41 | 29.45 | +119.51 %|
| 05.00 | 9.71 | 23.80 | +144.99 %| | Friday | 13.37 | 31.47 | +135.29 %|
| 06.00 | 8.99 | 21.54 | +139.57 %| | Saturday | 13.49 | 30.03 | +122.55 %|
| 07.00 | 8.86 | 20.14 | +127.34 %| +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 08.00 | 9.49 | 20.31 | +113.88 %| |
| 09.00 | 10.58 | 21.93 | +107.16 %| |
| 10.00 | 11.48 | 23.35 | +103.33 %| +--------------------------------------+
| 11.00 | 12.03 | 24.63 | +104.64 %| | - - - Field Sizes - - - |
| 12.00 | 12.49 | 25.64 | +105.28 %| | Number of days in Period A: 2551 |
| 13.00 | 13.26 | 26.80 | +102.11 %| | Number of days in Period B: 87 |
| 14.00 | 14.10 | 30.70 | +117.66 %| +--------------------------------------+
| 15.00 | 15.02 | 33.90 | +125.69 %| |
| 16.00 | 15.70 | 37.28 | +137.43 %| |
| 17.00 | 16.07 | 38.72 | +140.92 %| +--------------------------------------+
| 18.00 | 16.92 | 39.67 | +134.49 %| | Overall Summary |
| 19.00 | 18.08 | 42.31 | +133.97 %| +--------------------------------------+
| 20.00 | 19.91 | 44.73 | +124.63 %| | Overall average for Period A: 13.64 |
| 21.00 | 20.92 | 45.28 | +116.38 %| | Overall average for Period B: 30.70 |
| 22.00 | 20.93 | 44.35 | +111.86 %| | |
| 23.00 | 19.29 | 41.52 | +115.28 %| | Overall increase/decrease: +125.0 % |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+--------------------------------------+
So, for a sustained three months, we have averaged an APH of over 30. If
you take the combined average of all the days from 2008-2014, the APH is
less than 14. It is clear. We have MORE THAN DOUBLED THE PLAYERBASE. That
which looked like it would happen in last year's report has been borne out
and is the new reality. What is more, at peak hours, it is now the norm
to log in and see around 45 other players in the game with you.
Until now, numbers like this had only existed in the memories of our oldest
players, who have been around long enough to recall the first 10 years of the
game, from roughly 1992-2002. These were the days when guilds enjoyed rampant
and regular discussion on their in-game boards, councils were constantly
working hard to support and manage the interests of their many members, wars
were fought with huge troops on either side of a given dispute, and being in
a guild felt like having an in-game family. Have these days returned? Not
quite yet, perhaps, but such realities at long last feel not only possible,
but near at hand.
Let's move on to a discussion of the guilds and how they have fared in this
time of renewal, then.
First, we'll look at APH, by guild, averaged for an entire day. We
show two columns, one for 2014 and one for 2015.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2014 Ranking (Entire Day) 2015 Ranking (Entire Day)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1. Mercs (1.430) 1. +Mercs (3.578)
2. Rangers (1.101) 2. Angmar (2.394)
3. Monks (1.038) 3. Rangers (2.038)
4. Angmar (0.989) 4. Monks (2.016)
5. DArmy (0.668) 5. Glads (1.353)
6. Knights (0.410) 6. Neidar (0.912)
7. Calian (0.301) 7. DArmy (0.747)
8. Ogres (0.298) 8. ^Cadets (0.698)
9. Neidar (0.293) 9.^*Academ (0.539)
10. Glads (0.268) 10. Calian (0.501)
11. Mage (0.126) 11. Ogres (0.479)
12. ScoP (0.109) 12. Mages (0.254)
13. Union (0.104) 13.!-Knights (0.147)
14. Cadet (0.087) 14. ScoP (0.054)
15. Academ. (0.024) 15. Union (0.035)
16. Kender (0.019) 16. PoT (0.010)
17. PoT (0.019) 17. @Kender (0.002)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
+ Biggest APH gain (Mercs at +2.148)
- Biggest APH loss (Knights at -0.263)
* Biggest growth (Academics at 2,148 % increase)
@ Biggest decline (Kender at 89% decline)
^ Biggest rise (Cadet/Academ up 6 ranks)
! Biggest fall (Knights down 7 ranks)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Then, lets look at the guild's APH just for the game's peak hour, which
happens to be 21:00 gametime:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Representation During Peak Hour
(21:00 gametime in 2014) (21:00 gametime in 2015)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1. Mercs (2.534) 1. Mercs (5.405)
2. Angmar (2.271) 2. Angmar (3.849)
3. Rangers (2.189) 3. Rangers (3.632)
4. Monks (2.043) 4. Monks (3.578)
5. DArmy (1.454) 5. Glads (2.852)
6. Calian (1.235) 6. DArmy (1.652)
7. Ogres (1.183) 7. Neidar (1.641)
8. Glads (0.813) 8. Cadets (1.523)
9. Knights (0.805) 9. Ogres (1.490)
10. Mage (0.739) 10. Calian (1.336)
11. Neidar (0.783) 11. Academ (1.252)
12. Union (0.599) 12. Knights (1.032)
13. ScoP (0.506) 13. Mages (0.909)
14. PoT (0.416) 14. ScoP (0.583)
15. Cadet (0.397) 15. Union (0.484)
16. Academ. (0.295) 16. PoT (0.394)
17. Kender (0.109) 17. Kender (0.243)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Finally, lets look at the growth in activity for each guild in 2015
compared to the activity levels of the former year:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Growth from Former Year
=================================================================
Ranked by APH increase Ranked by relative change
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1. Mercs + 2.148 1. Academ 2,146 % growth
2. Angmar + 1.405 2. Cadets 702 % growth
3. Glads + 1.085 3. Glads 405 % growth
4. Monks + 0.978 4. Neidar 211 % growth
5. Rangers + 0.938 5. Mercs 150 % growth
6. Neidar + 0.619 6. Angmar 142 % growth
7. Cadets + 0.611 7. Mages 102 % growth
8. Academ + 0.515 8. Monks 94 % growth
9. Calian + 0.200 9. Rangers 85 % growth
10. Ogres + 0.181 10. Calian 66 % growth
11. Mages + 0.128 11. Ogres 61 % growth
12. DArmy + 0.079 12. DArmy 12 % growth
13. PoT - 0.009 13. PoT 47 % decline
14. Kender - 0.017 14. ScoP 50 % decline
15. ScoP - 0.055 15. Knights 64 % decline
16. Union - 0.069 16. Union 66 % decline
17. Knights - 0.263 17. Kender 89 % decline
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Haha! Look at that! Just what you would expect for a game that is
flooded with new players! The two guilds which are meant to be the
prime guilds for newbies have risen drastically in rank, and shown
relative growth FAR surpassing other guilds. Especially dramatic is
the Academic guild, which grew to 20x its former size. Another major
success story is clearly the Gladiator guild of Athas, growing 4x in
size from the previous year. The Mercs guild, though not as impressive
in relative growth, still doubled its numbers, which were already the
highest in the game, establishing them as the undisputedly dominant
guild for occupational player interest in Genesis.
On the other end, we have a few guilds which have almost completely
failed to draw the interest of our players. Most notably is the almost
entirely derelict Kender guild, who lost 90% of its member activity
in 2015 and has essentially ceased to exist. The Union, ScoP, and
PoT also suffered, losing half or more of their member activity
over the year, teetering on the brink of obscurity and having fewer
than one player present at any given time, on average, for the
year. Of particular concern is the Knight's guild, who tumbled a
staggering 7 ranks in guild activity levels, losing nearly two
thirds of their member activity on 2015.
These failures are excellent information for our wizards, who must
ask themselves "Why are these guilds failing?" "Why are these
guilds succeeding?" Finding answers to these questions will be an
important goal if we wish to find balance for our community
members to enjoy, regardless of which occupation they choose.
But we now have the numbers to justify taking guild concepts that
are failing and seeing what needs to be done to prop them up. And
with new work are needed new workers. Very much, then, are we to
be grateful for the swelling ranks of the wizard community.
Mirandus joins the Admin as AoP (Players), hardest job in the game,
and is already doing a wonderful job in the role. Cherek, formerly
of that position, has shifted to AoD (Domains) to manage
the many new wizards who have been created and give them training
and direction for their efforts. Stern, as AoE (Events) finds himself
surrounded by wizards with enthusiasm for his project list, as we
have experienced in the many events that came and went at year's end.
Cotillion as AoG (Gamedriver) continues his oversight of our
donut's health and well-being, constantly tweaking this or that
to keep us on course. Mercade as AoM (Mudlib) makes small
improvements behind the scenes on a regular basis, and is a
never ending source of knowledge and support for all wizards.
Petros, as AoB (Balance) has, like me, been sidelined by RL
for much of 2015, and hopes to renew activity in the new year
to continue the vision of progress for global balance.
New wizards are too many to name, having answered Cherek's
call for able and willing hands. Nearly twenty "Wizard" level
developers have been active within the last two weeks, along with
six "Liege" and "Steward" level wizards who add to the six
aforementioned Admin to create a combined total of over thirty
active coders for the game.
As I stated at the outset of this mail, I am in a poor position
to comment effectively on the present levels of development or
the accomplishments of the past year. Most of those will be
visible in a re-reading of the Common Board posts from 2015,
which I will leave to those who care to make a list. Instead,
this year, I will simply say that the future looks no less
bright than the recent past. New people continue to find our
game, in droves, every day. A fresh generation of wizards has
arisen to compliment the fresh generation of players. All of
the pieces are not only in place for success, but are in
play and moving along the board. New domains are in process.
New guilds are being coded. We continue to work to shore
up the areas and guilds that area already available.
The future has never looked so bright, and I have not felt
so fresh and new to the game since the days when I, myself,
was seeing the wonders of Genesis for the first time as a
young college student.
Celebrate, my friends, but do not grow complacent! We have
work yet to do, and many heights yet to scale! I am so very
glad to be back on the trail with you all. The glories of
2016 await us, and I cannot wait to see what their shapes
will be.
Yours,
Gorboth
