End of Summer Update

[gorboth]

Code: Select all

Esteemed fellow Genesis Enthusiasts,

It has been a very long time since I have posted any sort of report on the
state of the game. I have in the past done a Summer update of some sort,
but RL has claimed me almost entirely in 2016. Even so, I want to give
you a very brief glimpse at something, and offer a very true and very
amazing fact for you all. 

First the glimpse. Below is the chart of APH (average per hour) for the
entire span of time from this point last year till now. Take a peek.

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                         |
|  Average player activity by week for entire year, beginning Oct 05 2015 |
|                                                                         |
+---------+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+
|    33.5 |    | X   | X  |     |    |    |    |     |    |    |     | X X|
|    33.0 |    | X   | X  |     |    |    |    |  X  |    |    |     | X X|
|    32.5 |    | X   | X  |   XX|    |    |    |  XX |    |    |     |XXXX|
|    32.0 |    | X   | X  |X XXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |    |     |XXXX|
|    31.5 |    | X   | X X|X XXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |    |     |XXXX|
|    31.0 |    |XXX  | X X|XXXXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |    |    X|XXXX|
|    30.5 |    |XXX  | X X|XXXXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |  X |    X|XXXX|
|    30.0 |    |XXX X| X X|XXXXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |  X |   XX|XXXX|
|    29.5 |    |XXXXX|XX X|XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    |  X |   XX|XXXX|
|    29.0 |    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    |  XX|   XX|XXXX|
|    28.5 |    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    |  XX|   XX|XXXX|
|    28.0 |    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    | XXX|   XX|XXXX|
|    27.5 |    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    | XXX|   XX|XXXX|
|    27.0 |    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |    | XXX |    | XXX|X  XX|XXXX|
|    26.5 |   X|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   | X  |    | XXXX|    | XXX|X  XX|XXXX|
|    26.0 |   X|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX X| X  |    | XXXX|X   | XXX|X XXX|XXXX|
|    25.5 |XX X|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX X| X  |    | XXXX|X X | XXX|X XXX|XXXX|
|    25.0 |XX X|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXX | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    24.5 |XX X|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXX | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    24.0 |XX X|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXX |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    23.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    23.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    22.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X XX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    22.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    21.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    21.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    20.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    20.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    19.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    19.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| A  18.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| V  18.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| G  17.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    17.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| P  16.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| E  16.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| R  15.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    15.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| H  14.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| O  14.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| U  13.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| R  13.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    12.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| E  12.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| A  11.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| C  11.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| H  10.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    10.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| W   9.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| E   9.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| E   8.5 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| K   8.0 |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
+---------+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+
|  Month  |Oct |Nov  |Dec |Jan  |Feb |Mar |Apr |May  |Jun |Jul |Aug  |Sep |
+---------+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+
|                                                                         |
|               Mean yearly average players per hour = 28.01              |
|                                                                         |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Notice how much lower we were at the end of September last year! It is funny
how much things can look bad out of context. For some perspective, the
APH of 25 or so in October of 2015 is still 3 APH higher than the "big
bump" we got and were so excited about back in 2008 when we did the (then)
unthinkable and re-opened the long missed Angmar guild. 

For comparison:

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                         |
|  2007 - 2008                                   Angmar opening bump
|                                                        |                |
+---------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+--V-+-----+----+---+
|    22.5 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |     |X   |X    |    |   |
|    22.0 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |   X |XX  |X    |    |   |
|    21.5 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |   XX|XX  |X    |    |   |
|    21.0 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |   XX|XX X|XXX  |    |   |
|    20.5 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |   XX|XX X|XXX  |    |   |
|    20.0 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |   XX|XX X|XXXX |    |   |
|    19.5 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |   XX|XX X|XXXX |    |   |
|    19.0 |     |     |    |    |     |  X |    |   XX|XXXX|XXXX |    |   |
| A  18.5 |     |     |    |    |     |  X |    |   XX|XXXX|XXXX |    |   |
| V  18.0 |     |    X|    |    |     |  X |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|    |   |
| G  17.5 |     |    X|    |    |     |  X |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|    |   |
|    17.0 |     |    X|X   | X  |     |  X |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|    |   |
| P  16.5 |     |    X|X   | X  |     |XXX |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|    |   |
| E  16.0 |XXX  | XX X|X  X| XX |     |XXX |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|    |   |
| R  15.5 |XXXX | XX X|X  X| XX |    X|XXX |   X|  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|    |   |
|    15.0 |XXXX |XXXXX|X  X|XXX |    X|XXXX|   X|  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|    |   |
| H  14.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |    X|XXXX|   X|  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX  |   |
| O  14.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X  XX|XXXX|XX X|  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX  |   |
| U  13.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X  XX|XXXX|XXXX|X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX | X |
| R  13.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX XX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
|    12.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| E  12.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| A  11.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| C  11.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| H  10.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
|    10.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| W   9.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| E   9.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| E   8.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| K   8.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
+---------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+---+
|  Month  |Nov  |Dec  |Jan |Feb |Mar  |Apr |May |Jun  |Jul |Aug  |Sep |   |
+---------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+---+
|                                                                         |
|               Mean yearly average players per hour = 16.09              |
|                                                                         |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Suffice it to say that we have achieved a VERY NEW NORMAL. If you ever log
in and feel depressed by what appear to be low numbers, please look back
on this second graph and know that it used to be VERY DIFFERENT. :-)

Now, the fun and amazing fact:

The month of September 2016 (which we have just completed) is the highest
APH month we have had in the history of the modern game. Here it is by
APH each day:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20160901  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX             (33)
20160902  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX              (32)
20160903  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX               (31)
20160904  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX                (30)
20160905  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX              (32)
20160906  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX               (31)
20160907  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX                (30)
20160908  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX             (33)
20160909  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX               (39)
20160910  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX            (34)
20160911  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX         (37)
20160912  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX                (30)
20160913  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX           (35)
20160914  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX           (35)
20160915  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX          (36)
20160916  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX          (36)
20160917  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX            (34)
20160918  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX           (35)
20160919  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX              (32)
20160920  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX             (33)
20160921  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX              (32)
20160922  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX         (29)
20160923  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX          (36)
20160924  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX               (31)
20160925  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX           (35)
20160926  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX           (35)
20160927  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX           (35)
20160928  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX            (34)
20160929  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX            (34)
20160930  XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX            (34)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Displayed was the daily average of player activity on all days beginning on
20160901 and ending on 20160930.

              Average players per hour in given parameters = 33.43             
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

An ENTIRE MONTH with logins of 30+!! (except for the 22nd, which was just
shy by 1 at 29.) You have all just experienced the best month genesis
has had perhaps of the new millenium. It is not completely assured to say
this since things were pretty healthy back around 2000, and the census
only began in 2007. But! It is entirely easy to say that this is the best
month that the game has had since 2007, and my memory is very clear that
for 4-5 years things had been in major decline at that point, so it is
probably safe to say since 2003 or so. In other words, the best month
we've had (easily) in over ten years.

That is something to celebrate! Our community is as healthy as I have 
wanted it to be since I became Keeper ten years ago. Thanks for all you
do each day to make this a fun place. I very much hope to be saying things
even greater and more exciting ten years from now! :-)

Cheers, and thanks for a great Summer.
G.

[Emmiline Calaith]

This is all great news! Thanks for sharing, Gorboth! (:

[Kitriana]

Curious .. What are the trends of players in the game in terms of peak vs low traffic hours? And how much do the low traffic hours effect the daily average?

[gorboth]

Here's a list of time-of-day and other data from two time periods. The first is the summer months. The second is from Oct 1 to today.

Code: Select all

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|             Comparing player activity over two time periods:               |
|                      A: Jun 01 2016 - Sep 01 2016                          |
|                      B: Oct 01 2016 - Nov 06 2016                          |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| Hour  |   A   |   B   | % change |  | Weekday   |   A   |   B   | % change |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+  +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 00.00 | 28.06 | 37.72 |  +34.43 %|  | Sunday    | 24.88 | 30.66 |  +23.20 %|
| 01.00 | 24.91 | 34.62 |  +38.96 %|  | Monday    | 26.91 | 32.40 |  +20.40 %|
| 02.00 | 24.55 | 34.29 |  +39.67 %|  | Tuesday   | 27.36 | 31.34 |  +14.53 %|
| 03.00 | 24.48 | 35.18 |  +43.69 %|  | Wednesday | 26.99 | 31.19 |  +15.56 %|
| 04.00 | 24.75 | 33.89 |  +36.93 %|  | Thursday  | 27.55 | 31.73 |  +15.17 %|
| 05.00 | 23.82 | 30.45 |  +27.84 %|  | Friday    | 27.39 | 33.51 |  +22.37 %|
| 06.00 | 22.42 | 25.67 |  +14.50 %|  | Saturday  | 24.99 | 32.47 |  +29.93 %|
| 07.00 | 21.41 | 21.97 |   +2.61 %|  +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 08.00 | 21.26 | 20.54 |   -3.38 %|                                         |
| 09.00 | 21.10 | 22    |   +4.22 %|                                         |
| 10.00 | 22.27 | 22.35 |   +0.35 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 11.00 | 23.15 | 23.81 |   +2.84 %|  |       - - - Field  Sizes - - -       |
| 12.00 | 23.55 | 25.70 |   +9.12 %|  | Number of days in Period A:      92  |
| 13.00 | 25.68 | 29.29 |  +14.06 %|  | Number of days in Period B:      37  |
| 14.00 | 28.77 | 31.59 |   +9.81 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 15.00 | 30.97 | 34.37 |  +10.97 %|                                         |
| 16.00 | 31.07 | 36.40 |  +17.14 %|                                         |
| 17.00 | 31.83 | 37.89 |  +19.01 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 18.00 | 33.23 | 41.81 |  +25.78 %|  |           Overall Summary            |
| 19.00 | 34.71 | 43.02 |  +23.93 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 20.00 | 36.34 | 43.29 |  +19.11 %|  | Overall average for Period A:  26.62 |
| 21.00 | 35.84 | 44.02 |  +22.81 %|  | Overall average for Period B:  31.88 |
| 22.00 | 34.85 | 42.83 |  +22.88 %|  |                                      |
| 23.00 | 32.31 | 40.40 |  +25.03 %|  | Overall increase/decrease:  +19.79 % |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+--------------------------------------+

You can see within where our populations are highest, lowest, etc.

G.

[Ody]

Are guild stats only for the State of the Doughnut update?

[Kitriana]

cool thanks

[Melarec]

Wow. It's like Gorboth is using Excel..
But it's not..

I love these charts.

[Emmiline Calaith]

So, according to your chart, Gorboth, the game is going nowhere but up? This is great news! Thanks for the update.

[Cherek]

So, according to your chart, Gorboth, the game is going nowhere but up? This is great news! Thanks for the update.

Oh yeah, it definitely is. I think we even have a serious shot at seeing 100+ players on the who list in the foreseeable future if we keep this up. That would be just awesome!

[gorboth]

Wow. It's like Gorboth is using Excel..
But it's not..

I love these charts.

Hee hee! Yeah, I'm a stats nerd. Probably why I married my wife, who teaches statistics at University. Okay ... not why I married her.

I do love good stats, though. The census and the analytics tools are the first thing I built in our LPC environment after becoming Keeper. My goal was to see if we could double the playerbase, and I wanted the tools to be able to assess the situation over time.

G.