State of the Donut - 2016

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gorboth
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Posts: 2352
Joined: 03 Mar 2010 20:51
Location: Some old coffin

State of the Donut - 2016

Post by gorboth » 10 Jan 2017 13:11

Code: Select all

Esteemed Fellow Genesis Enthusiasts,

A new year has dawned, and we find ourselves gazing out over the landscape
that is to come with memories of the landscape of yesteryear fresh in our
minds. As is my tradition in these times, I come to you with this, my annual
State of the Donut address. Herein I will reflect on the humble enterprise
we know as Genesis, giving special attention to those data that I have been
able to draw as hard fact and, from these, offer assessments as I am able from
both what I know, and what I feel *might* be true.

First and foremost - prepare yourselves for news that is good - VERY GOOD
INDEED! This year comes on the heels of two successive years of improvement,
where Genesis saw a Renaissance in many ways. If you wish to review what
transpired in those years, I invite you to invoke the mystic runes I make
here available to peruse the advances of the recent past:

State of the Donut 2014:
https://www.genesismud.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=3011

State of the Donut 2015:
https://www.genesismud.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=3420

Both of these posts contain a great deal of context that will assist those
who are relatively new to our realm to understand where we have been, what
has taken place in the last 20 years, and how we have come to be where we
are now. 

As I stated, the news is good - yes, quite! This will come as small surprise
to those who have been part of the realms for more than four years. Memories
of years prior to 2014 will involve a Genesis that felt almost like a
single-player game at times, with the likelihood of encountering other people
in the realm very uncertain at some hours of the day. Those days, thankfully
are almost entirely a thing of the past. Well - let's take a peek, shall we?

To begin with, a small discussion of the data and methods for their
acquisition are in order. The Genesis Census (in effect since late 2007)
takes a snapshot of the playerbase once per hour, creating a tally of all
non-wizard players who are logged in. The snapshots taken are of the player-
base as a whole, as well as for each open guild in the game. Using these
snapshots, we are able, over the course of time, to develop a sense of how
many players are logged in to the game per hour. The Average Per Hour (APH)
is then something we can discuss to understand the rise and fall of activity
in the Donut relating to individual time periods and guilds.

So - how did we do in 2016? Behold!

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                         |
|  Average player activity by week for entire year, beginning Jan 01 2016 |
|                                                                         |
+---------+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|    33.5 |     |    |    |    |     |    |    |     | X X| X  X|    |    |
|    33.0 |     |    |    |    |  X  |    |    |     | X X| X  X|X   |    |
|    32.5 |   XX|    |    |    |  XX |    |    |     |XXXX| X  X|X   | X  |
|    32.0 |X XXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |    |     |XXXX|XX XX|X   |XXX |
|    31.5 |X XXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |    |     |XXXX|XXXXX|XX  |XXX |
|    31.0 |XXXXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |    |    X|XXXX|XXXXX|XX X|XXXX|
| A  30.5 |XXXXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |  X |    X|XXXX|XXXXX|XX X|XXXX|
| V  30.0 |XXXXX|    |    |    |  XX |    |  X |   XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX X|XXXX|
| G  29.5 |XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    |  X |   XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    29.0 |XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    |  XX|   XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| P  28.5 |XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    |  XX|   XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E  28.0 |XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    | XXX|   XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| R  27.5 |XXXXX|X   |    |    |  XX |    | XXX|   XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    27.0 |XXXXX|X   |    |    | XXX |    | XXX|X  XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| H  26.5 |XXXXX|X   | X  |    | XXXX|    | XXX|X  XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| O  26.0 |XXXXX|XX X| X  |    | XXXX|X   | XXX|X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| U  25.5 |XXXXX|XX X| X  |    | XXXX|X X | XXX|X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| R  25.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXX | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    24.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXX | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E  24.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXX |XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| A  23.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| C  23.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |  XX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| H  22.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X XX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    22.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| W  21.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E  21.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E  20.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| K  20.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
+---------+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|  Month  |Jan  |Feb |Mar |Apr |May  |Jun |Jul |Aug  |Sep |Oct  |Nov |    |
+---------+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|                                                                         |
|               Mean yearly average players per hour = 29.14              |
|                                                                         |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Now, some of you may immediately be thinking ... hmmm, this graph
looks a bit wimpy compared to past years - I remember them being much, much
taller in 2014 and 2015. That would be true! When the Census was created,
I needed to set the bottom of the graph *MUCH* lower. If I were to use
that older metric with the graph for 2016, we would have a bunch of
very pointless rows filled with X-marks from APH 7.0 up to APH 20.0. So
this year I decided to just cut those off and set 20.0 as our *low*
mark. To give you some context, examine this chart from the end of 2013
to the end of 2014. In that older chart, you can see that 20.0 is our
very *highest* mark for those years, and we never even reached it!

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                         |
|  Average player activity by week for entire year, beginning Nov 01 2013 |
|                                                                         |
+---------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+---+
|    20.0 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
|    19.5 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
|    19.0 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
|    18.5 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
|    18.0 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
|    17.5 |     |     |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
|    17.0 |     |     |X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
| A  16.5 |     |    X|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
| V  16.0 |     |    X|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
| G  15.5 |     |    X|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
|    15.0 |XX   |    X|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |   |
| P  14.5 |XXX X|    X|X   |  X |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |X  |
| E  14.0 |XXXXX|X   X|X   | XX |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |X  |
| R  13.5 |XXXXX|X   X|X XX| XX |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |XX |
|    13.0 |XXXXX|X  XX|XXXX|XXXX|     |    |    |     |    |     |   X|XXX|
| H  12.5 |XXXXX|XX XX|XXXX|XXXX|     |    |    |     |    |     | X X|XXX|
| O  12.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|     |    |    |     |    |     | XXX|XXX|
| U  11.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|     |    |    |     |    |  X  |XXXX|XXX|
| R  11.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|     |    |    |     |    |  XX |XXXX|XXX|
|    10.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|     |    |XXX |     |    |  XX |XXXX|XXX|
| E  10.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|  X  |    |XXXX|XXXX |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXX|
| A   9.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX  |  X |XXXX|XXXX |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXX|
| C   9.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX X|  XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX  | XXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| H   8.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX X|  XX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX  | XXXX|XXXX|XXX|
|     8.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX X| XXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| W   7.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX| XXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| E   7.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX| XXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| E   6.5 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX| XXXX|XXXX|XXX|
| K   6.0 |XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX|
+---------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+---+
|  Month  |Nov  |Dec  |Jan |Feb |Mar  |Apr |May |Jun  |Jul |Aug  |Sep |   |
+---------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+---+
|                                                                         |
|               Mean yearly average players per hour = 11.25              |
|                                                                         |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Notice that where we end above in November of 2014, just slightly over
two years ago, we have an APH average for the year of 11.25. Our APH
average for 2016 is at 29.14, nearly TRIPLE where we were in very recent
memory! Speaking of memory, I always like to gaze as far backwards as we
are able, to take a true trip down memory lane with our data. As such,
I offer you now two ways to view the past. This first graph shows the full
spectrum of data we have collected in our years since the census was
created, beginning with our first full year of 2008 and leading up to the
present. This graph will show four data points for each year, offering
a quarterly bar to see how we've been doing:

+------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|            Population Levels in APH over the last 9 Years              |
|                       ( quarterly histogram )                          |
+---------+--------------------------------------------------------------+
|    31.0 |                                                            X |
|    30.0 |                                                            X |
|    29.0 |                                                           XX |
|    28.0 |                                                     X     XX |
|    27.0 |                                                  X  X   X XX |
|    26.0 |                                                  X  X   X XX |
|    25.0 |                                                  X  X   XXXX |
| A  24.0 |                                                  X  X   XXXX |
| V  23.0 |                                                  X  X   XXXX |
| G  22.0 |                                                  X  X   XXXX |
|    21.0 |                                                  XX X   XXXX |
| P  20.0 |                                              X   XXXX   XXXX |
| E  19.0 |   X                                          X   XXXX   XXXX |
| R  18.0 |   X                                          X   XXXX   XXXX |
|    17.0 |   X    XX                                    X   XXXX   XXXX |
| H  16.0 |  XX    XXX             X                     X   XXXX   XXXX |
| O  15.0 | XXX    XXX             X                     X   XXXX   XXXX |
| U  14.0 | XXX    XXXX   X       XX              X      X   XXXX   XXXX |
| R  13.0 | XXX    XXXX   X X     XXX             X      X   XXXX   XXXX |
|    12.0 | XXXX   XXXX   XXX    XXXX      X   X  X   X  X   XXXX   XXXX |
| W  11.0 | XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX      X   XXXX   X  X   XXXX   XXXX |
| E  10.0 | XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   X XX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX |
| E   9.0 | XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX |
| K   8.0 | XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX   XXXX |
+---------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Quarter | 1234 | 1234 | 1234 | 1234 | 1234 | 1234 | 1234 | 1234 | 1234 |
+---------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
|   Year  | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
+---------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
|Yr. Ave. | 15.8 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 24.2 | 29.1 |
+---------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+

I did mention that the news this year was good, did I not? Feast your eyes
on that modern trend! The gains of 2015 have not merely been
maintained, but have continued to increase. In fact, let's go ahead and
simplify the graph somewhat to a single data-point per year, and then
add what we have seen thus far in 2017 to assess how the trend continues:

+----------------------------------------------------------------------+
|          Population Levels in APH over the last 9 Years              |
|                       ( annual line-plot )                           |   O
+-------+--------------------------------------------------------------+ .'
|  31.0 |                                                              |'  ^ 
|  30.0 |                                                             .|   |
|  29.0 |                                                           O' |   |
|  28.0 |                                                          '   |*First
|  27.0 |                                                        ,'    |  ten
|  26.0 |                                                       .      | days
|  25.0 |                                                      '       |  of
|  24.0 |                                                   .O'        | 2017
|  23.0 |                                                   ;          |
|  22.0 |                                                  |           |
|  21.0 |                                                  ;           |
|  20.0 |                                                 |            |
|  19.0 |                                                 ;            |
|  18.0 |                                                |             |
|  17.0 |                                                ;             |
|  16.0 |       _,-O.                                   |              |
|  15.0 |   O-''     `.                                 ;              |
|  14.0 |              `.     _,-O.                    |               |
|  13.0 |                `O-''     \             __,--O`               |
|  12.0 |                           `.       _.O`                      |
|  11.0 |                             \   .-'                          |
|  10.0 |                              `O'                             |
|   9.0 |                                                              |
|   8.0 |                                                              |
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-- - 
| Year  | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-- - 
|Yr Ave.| 15.8 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 24.2 | 29.1 |*33.0
+-------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-- - 

What I love about the data here is that they shows that our current trend
into 2017 of 33 APH doubles the best year prior to 2015 that we've ever
recorded with our Census. From the outset the goal I have stated since
becoming Keeper is to double the playerbase. Last year we were able to
celebrate the fact that we managed to double the playerbase from one year
to another - 2015 was twice as good as 2014. But now, we can actually say
that we are in the process doubling the playerbase from the BEST YEAR
we had on record prior to our modern achievements - that of 2009. In
2009 we had an annual APH of 16.1. at 29.1 we nearly double that in
2016, and are most certainly doubling it in our days of the new year thus
far. But this is not just a trend of the New Year. Since September of 2016,
for three solid months, we have maintained 32+ APH - a true and consistent
"New Normal" that blesses us with a healthy <who> list at all hours of
the day. This is a success by any standard I have ever dared to set!

So let's go ahead and compare, exhaustively, our year of 2016 to the
previous year for an average daily APH data:

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|             Comparing player activity over two time periods:               |
|                      A: Jan 01 2015 - Dec 31 2015                          |
|                      B: Jan 01 2016 - Dec 31 2016                          |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| Hour  |   A   |   B   | % change |  | Weekday   |   A   |   B   | % change |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+  +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 00.00 | 28.84 | 32.79 |  +13.69 %|  | Sunday    | 23.83 | 27.89 |  +17.05 %|
| 01.00 | 25.20 | 30.02 |  +19.11 %|  | Monday    | 24.72 | 28.63 |  +15.80 %|
| 02.00 | 23.47 | 28.65 |  +22.05 %|  | Tuesday   | 25.16 | 28.92 |  +14.94 %|
| 03.00 | 22.57 | 28.52 |  +26.35 %|  | Wednesday | 24.81 | 28.53 |  +14.96 %|
| 04.00 | 21.82 | 27.75 |  +27.16 %|  | Thursday  | 24.47 | 28.58 |  +16.77 %|
| 05.00 | 19.64 | 25.29 |  +28.75 %|  | Friday    | 25.13 | 29.64 |  +17.95 %|
| 06.00 | 17.41 | 22.70 |  +30.36 %|  | Saturday  | 23.08 | 27.91 |  +20.96 %|
| 07.00 | 16.29 | 20.67 |  +26.88 %|  +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 08.00 | 16.99 | 20.28 |  +19.38 %|                                         |
| 09.00 | 18.75 | 21.19 |  +13.02 %|                                         |
| 10.00 | 19.48 | 22.28 |  +14.36 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 11.00 | 20.21 | 22.92 |  +13.42 %|  |       - - - Field  Sizes - - -       |
| 12.00 | 21.33 | 23.60 |  +10.61 %|  | Number of days in Period A:     364  |
| 13.00 | 22.88 | 25.55 |  +11.63 %|  | Number of days in Period B:     365  |
| 14.00 | 25.07 | 29.07 |  +15.94 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 15.00 | 27.32 | 31.93 |  +16.90 %|                                         |
| 16.00 | 28.80 | 33.15 |  +15.09 %|                                         |
| 17.00 | 30.04 | 34.12 |  +13.55 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 18.00 | 30.53 | 36.45 |  +19.39 %|  |           Overall Summary            |
| 19.00 | 32.42 | 38.46 |  +18.62 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 20.00 | 34.75 | 40.26 |  +15.83 %|  | Overall average for Period A:  24.45 |
| 21.00 | 35.42 | 39.85 |  +12.51 %|  | Overall average for Period B:  29.14 |
| 22.00 | 35.10 | 38.78 |  +10.49 %|  |                                      |
| 23.00 | 33.05 | 36.43 |  +10.24 %|  | Overall increase/decrease:  +19.18 % |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+--------------------------------------+

Just look at that, will you? Every single index shows that 2016 exceeded
the previous year. Every hour of every day. 2015 was our best year on
record, and we grew an additional 20% from that success! Friday ended up
being our most popular day, and our most popular hour shifted to 20:00
gametime. 7:00 - 8:00 was our daily low ebb, and 6:00 was our biggest hour
of growth over the former year, increasing by 30%. This is just stellar
stuff, overall.

As wonderful as all the APH info this year has been, there have definitely
been fluctuations in our numbers over the months. As you will notice in
the 2016 weekly graph, we had a rather sharp decline in February that
lasted until mid-May. A spike in interest in May quickly fell off again
and and lapsed until mid-July when another spike held into mid-August.
Following a lapse in August, things picked up and remained as strong as
they have been in modern times from September until the end of the Year.

To assess this, it is useful to take a look at the developments in the
game over these months of the year. Player interest is often directly
related to developments in the game, and I suspect that such correlations
can be found if we take a moment to remember what has transpired.

Here, then, is a brief (and incomplete) history of some of the noteworthy
developments in Genesis for 2016:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - Auction House retooled to handle imbuements in new ways.
 - Yule Tree Wheel Spinnng Event (begun in December of 2015)
 - Mirandus became AoP (Archwizard of Players).
     * This job handles the needs and governance of player issues.
 - Cherek became AoD (Archwizard of Domains).
     * This job handles the needs and governance of wizard coding issues.
 - The Keeper returned from long absence (who ... me?)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - Imbuement drop frequency lessened and distribution methods changed.
     * Many players did not like this.
 - Combat damage applied to all worn items on all body parts.
     * This caused imbued items formerly immune to damage to break. Also
       very unpopular, overall, but deemed necessary.
 - Stat imbuement power-levels reduced.
     * Some players left due to these three things, unhappy with the changes.
 - Armour changed to break only at "touched by battle" or worse
 - Messages added to let players know when armour conditions degrade.
 - Navarre stepped down as Liege of Krynn after many years of service.
 - Arman became the new Liege of Krynn.
 - Finwe resumed his former position as Liege of Faerun.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mar.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - New <facepalm> emote added to the game (suggested by Taro)
 - Imbuement droprates increased.
     * We deemed the former change a bit too extreme.
 - Forum thread-o-bot introduced to improve forum environment/culture.
     * We also lost a few players here, unhappy with this policing.
     * It was totally worth it!
 - Butterfly event held.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Apr.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - Petros retires as AoB after many excellent, invaluable years of service.
 - Cotillion resumes former position as AoB.
     * This job assesses balance considerations for Genesis' content.
 - New Blacksmith added to Dwarfheim (thanks Varian!)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
May.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - 1st Genemon event held. (cancelled due to bugs and exploits)
     * Lots of players participated, but felt burned when it was cancelled.
 - Jaacar made Liege of Calia.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
June.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - Genesis Shindig held in Denmark (thanks Danes!)
 - Varian made Liege of Gondor.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jul.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - Rule update: Autohunt and speedwalk triggers prohibited in pvp.
 - 2nd Genemon Event held (with success, this time)
     * Players showed up and participated quite a bit.
 - Help commands added for archery enthusiasts.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - Magic Map addition: road between Gelan and Argos (Perrigrine)
 - Magic Map addition: Greenholm and Whitfurrows in Shire (Perrigrine)
 - Magic Map addition: Thornlin in Gondor (Perrigrine)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sep.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - Magic Map addition: Foothills of Mt. Kryus in Calia (Perrigrine)
 - Magic Map addition: Qualinesti Camp in Krynn (Arman)
 - Magic Map addition: Calia-Line ships (Perrigrine)
 - Magic Map addition: Pax Tharkas (Arman)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - All Hallow's Eve Scavenger Hunt.
 - Magic Map addition: Pelargir shiplines (Perrigrine)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nov.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - Lapidariums improved to allow <conversion> of imbuement stones.
 - SoHM guild opened! (Huge thanks to Arman and his testers!)
     * Greatest success in the last ten years! Players joined in droves.
 - Magic Map addition: Grey Havens shipline (Perrigrine)
 - Magic Map addition: Cadu (Perrigrine)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dec.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - New <options> command to prevent unwelcome intimate emotes.
 - Crackdown on botting.
 - Yule Tree Event.
 - New tracking mechanism for bugs for wizards. (thanks Mercade!)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quite the year! Some of the above helps explain the rise and fall of APH
numbers over the span of time. Nerfs and cancelled events preceed the dips
in logins here and there. Rises in interest follow and are sustained by
successful events and new guilds. 

Did I say new guilds? Oh yes! A huge round of applause is due to our
esteemed wizard Arman, who returned to Genesis after many years away. He
is far from a new face, having coded much for the Krynn areas in the
past (guilds, areas, etc.) But Genesis has not enjoyed the opening of a
new occupational guild since 2008 - nearly 10 years ago! That has changed
with Arman's new School of High Magic, which opened recently. Sadly, we do
not have census figures for this new guild, but suffice it to say that
they were the MOST POPULAR THING IN GENESIS in 2016. There were times
when I saw 20+ members of the SoHM, which dominated the scene throughout
December and into the New Year. Magic is alive and well in the Donut!

Praise is also due to the AoE team, and those wizards who took the time
to make Events possible this year. Cherek's spin at the Wheel-o-Fun under
the Yule Tree was quite popular at year's beginning and year's end. As
previously mentioned, Jaacar's Genemon Event was fun for many people,
and the Butterfly Event was revisited this year with many people taking
part, as it was also with the Scavenger Hunt. 

Many new wizards were added to Genesis in 2016, a number of whom have done
well learning the ropes, now poised to begin contributing in meaningful
ways to the game in the coming year.

Established wizards like Varian and Nerull helped make small improvements
in various domain and guild-related issues in Gondor and elsewhere, along
with the aforementioned Arman, who has actively overseen all Krynn-related
interests. Carnak tinkered with this-n-that which will perhaps see the
light of day in the coming year.

A special mention must go to the new wizard Perrigrine, who made it his
personal mission to get the Magic Map functioning in as many places in
Genesis as he could possibly manage. No single wizard has accomplished so
much mapping in so short a time as he. For this, much praise is due, and
not least from me! Arman also did a lot of nice mapping in Krynn, so some
more clapping goes to him also for mapping efforts.

Your Genesis Administrators were not idle this year. A brief summary will
include Stern being active to oversee Event management in small doses,
Mercade continuing his expert surveillance of overall game-management and
numerous updates to mudlib and wizard-tool functions, Cotillion offering
ongoing support with Gamedriver and Client tweaks as well as looking after
issues with game stability and tweaking the imbuement and armour systems
in the game, Cherek doing exhaustive work to keep the wizard workforce
indoctrinated, placed, engaged, and supported over the year as well as
doing a little bit of this-n-that pretty much everywhere, Mirandus doing
invaluable and solid work as AoP to keep players free of bugs or other
types of woe (except for cheaters), and me, who decided to actually show
up this year and confuse people with the nearly forgotten "Keeper" rank.

But enough about wizards. Genesis is primarily about its players, and that
would be all of you. I like to spend some time each year looking at the
guilds this game offers to the players, to see how each was able to function
as a healthy home and identity for our adventuring community.

Let's begin by looking at the last two years of guild activity, ranked
respectively by APH representation over the entire day:

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
        2015 Ranking (Entire Day)       2016 Ranking (Entire Day)  rank change
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
         1.  Mercs     (3.578)           1. +Mercs     (5.994)         
         2.  Angmar    (2.394)           2.  Angmar    (2.717)       
         3.  Rangers   (2.038)           3.  DArmy     (1.838)       + 4
         4.  Monks     (2.016)           4.  Glads     (1.569)       + 1
         5.  Glads     (1.353)           5.  Rangers   (1.205)       - 2
         6.  Neidar    (0.912)           6. ^Knights   (1.065)       + 7
         7.  DArmy     (0.747)           7. -Monks     (0.909)       - 3
         8.  Cadets    (0.698)           8.  Cadets    (0.835)          
         9.  Academ    (0.539)           9.  Neidar    (0.824)       - 3
        10.  Calian    (0.501)          10. *Union     (0.630)       + 5
        11.  Ogres     (0.479)          11.  Ogres     (0.490)          
        12.  Mages     (0.254)          12.  Calian    (0.479)       - 2
        13.  Knights   (0.147)          13. !Academ    (0.432)       - 4
        14.  ScoP      (0.054)          14.  Mages     (0.205)       - 2
        15.  Union     (0.035)          15.  ScoP      (0.178)       - 1
        16.  PoT       (0.010)          16.  PoT       (0.128)         
        17.  Kender    (0.002)          17. @Kender    (0.000)         
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                + Biggest APH gain (Mercs at +2.416)
                - Biggest APH loss (Monks at -1.129)
                * Biggest growth   (Union at 1,700 % increase)
                @ Biggest decline  (Kender at 100% decline)
                ^ Biggest rise     (Knights up 7 ranks)
                ! Biggest fall     (Academics down 4 ranks)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Fascinating! The big success stories of the year include the Mercenaries'
guild, which rose to completely dominate the landscape, more than double
any other guild's numbers; the Knights of Solamnia who, following a
dire performance in 2015, rose more ranks than any other guild to re-
assume a position of respectability in the realms for player activity;
and the Union Guild who had a spectacular relative-increase in their
player activity. The Monks suffered a fairly substantial loss of activity,
but seem to have been healthy enough to weather it, as they remain in the
top 7. Academics dropped a disappointing 4 ranks following their huge
success of the previous year. Absolutely gutteral was the no-show of the
Kender guild who faded into non-existance this year. Notably absent from
these calculations was the late-year arrival of the aforementioned School
of High Magic (SoHM) guild. Had they been tracked by the census, they would
have beaten the Mercs handily and ridden the top of the chart.

It is useful to see the specific comparison of a guild's performance to
the former year, so let's take a look at that:

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                      Growth from Former Year
    =================================================================
        Ranked by APH increase           Ranked by relative change
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
       1.  Mercs      + 2.416        1.  Union     1,700 % growth
       2.  DArmy      + 1.091        2.  PoT       1,180 % growth
       3.  Knights    + 0.918        3.  Knights     624 % growth
       4.  Union      + 0.595        4.  ScoP        230 % growth
       5.  Angmar     + 0.323        5.  DArmy       146 % growth
       6.  Glads      + 0.216        6.  Mercs        67 % growth
       7.  Cadets     + 0.137        7.  Cadets       20 % growth
       8.  ScoP       + 0.124        8.  Glads        16 % growth
       9.  PoT        + 0.118        9.  Angmar       13 % growth
______10.__Ogres______+ 0.011_______10.__Ogres_________2 % growth_________
      11.  Kender     - 0.002       11.  Calian        4 % decline
      12.  Calian     - 0.022       12.  Neidar       10 % decline
      13.  Mages      - 0.049       13.  Mages        19 % decline
      14.  Neidar     - 0.088       14.  Academ       20 % decline
      15.  Academ     - 0.107       15.  Rangers      41 % decline
      16.  Rangers    - 0.844       16.  Monks        56 % decline
      17.  Monks      - 1.129       17.  Kender      100 % decline (DEAD!)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Both the Union and the Priests of Takhisis surged from their very poor
years in 2015. As happened with the Academics in last year's tally, both
of these guilds benefitted from the fact that they had such a small
showing to build on. The PoT's 0.118 APH increase is not very big, but
relative to their near no-show in 2015, it was a significant increase.
The Union can be lauded unconditionally, as their amount of increase
alone is better than the total APH of more than half of the guilds in
Genesis. They truly had a great year. The guilds of Krynn were perhaps
the biggest success stories of the game outside of the Mercs. The Knights
completely overcame the woes of last year to surge back to health, and
the Dragonarmies were among the most popular and headline-grabbing guilds
of the year. The Rangers and Monks had a hard year. But more dreadful than
any story was that of the poor Kenders - they simply died out.

One last metric it is fun to examine is each guild's representation during
peak gaming hours. I've added one additional bit of data this time,
showing how much % of the game's total population each guild represented
during this hour each average day:

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                  APH Representation During Peak Hour 
         (21:00 gametime in 2015)         (20:00 gametime in 2016)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
        1.  Mercs     5.405  (15%)       1.  Mercs     8.695  (21%)
        2.  Angmar    3.849  (11%)       2.  Angmar    4.526  (11%)
        3.  Rangers   3.632  (10%)       3.  DArmy     3.271  ( 8%)
        4.  Monks     3.578  (10%)       4.  Glads     2.953  ( 7%)
      __5.  Glads     2.852  ( 8%)       5.  Rangers   2.432  ( 6%)
        6.  DArmy     1.652  ( 5%)       6.  Knights   2.238  ( 5%)
        7.  Neidar    1.641  ( 5%)       7.  Monks     1.934  ( 5%)
        8.  Cadets    1.523  ( 4%)       8.  Union     1.616  ( 4%)
        9.  Ogres     1.490  ( 4%)       9.  Neidar    1.613  ( 4%)
       10.  Calian    1.336  ( 4%)      10.  Cadets    1.564  ( 4%)
       11.  Academ    1.252  ( 3%)      11.  Ogres     1.561  ( 4%)
       12.  Knights   1.032  ( 3%)      12.  Calian    1.030  ( 2%)
       13.  Mages     0.909  ( 2%)      13.  Academ    0.997  ( 2%)
       14.  ScoP      0.583  ( 1%)      14.  ScoP      0.934  ( 2%)
       15.  Union     0.484  ( 1%)      15.  PoT       0.742  ( 2%)
       16.  PoT       0.394  ( 1%)      16.  Mages     0.632  ( 2%)
       17.  Kender    0.243  (<1%)      17.  Kender    0.106  (<1%)
     ----------------------------------------------------------------
            Gamewide  34.75  (%pop)          Gamewide  40.26  (%pop)
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So, a full 20% of the game were Mercenaries during peak playing hours
this year. Angmar was the second most popular, at 11%. Reading all of
these guild-related data, I encourage players to assess their guilds and
make of the trends what they are able. I find it very interesting to note
that two of last years worst performers (perhaps given a bit of fire by
seeing how poorly they had done?) turned things around in 2016. I
would love to see the same take place this year for the guilds who have
ended up in woeful positions. Obviously, there are things we wizards need
to consider to make sure each guild has a fair shake. But it will always,
in the end, fall to players to do what they can to make sure their guild
is energized and filled with life. My belief is that roleplay and
the stories you create each day are the most essential piece of this
puzzle. The mechanics and the nuts and bolts of the game that we wizards
can build are certainly no small consideration, but the heart, soul, and
passion of the players will always rise to the top in Genesis, and coax
from any situation the best and the most memorable moments.

And such moments will continue! I see nothing but promise as I look forward
to 2017. The health of the game has returned and Genesis stands tall. On
this landscape I see near at hand the rebirth of yet another guild that
has been recrafted after long years of waiting. Doubling the playerbase was
but one of our goals at the outset of the new era in 2007 - we also meant
to recode all guilds in the game. That recode nears completion, and I
finally see it coming to pass in a realistic future. With floods of new
players finding us each week through our modernized client and web-
presence, we are in a new era of opportunity to re-vision how we want this
game to feel, and look to what goals will be best for our next moves
forward. 

I continue to feel excited and lucky to be part of this rare and unique
community - the Realms of Genesis.

Onward, my friends, and upwards!
G.

Mmmmmm ... pie ...

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gold bezie
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Posts: 299
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Re: State of the Donut - 2016

Post by gold bezie » 10 Jan 2017 14:32

Thank you Gorboth for showing us this. Good to see we are still alive and kicking. I think we owe a lot to people who spend time in promoting this game on twitter and youtube as well :). Also the new guild and the work of Perrigrine was something that we really needed, so thanks for that.

I must say im proud to see that the rangers still are ranked as one of the more active guilds even if we had a lost compared to last year. With the balance problem we face its hard to keep the bigger players above champion happy in our guild. But maybe that is something for next year.

Anyway wanted to say thank you all for the fun!
Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that.

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morgzaash
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Location: Sopot, PL
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Re: State of the Donut - 2016

Post by morgzaash » 10 Jan 2017 16:15

Amazing year-summary from Jan to Dec. I'd love to see brief summary every month.

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gorboth
Site Admin
Posts: 2352
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Re: State of the Donut - 2016

Post by gorboth » 10 Jan 2017 18:34

gold bezie wrote:Thank you Gorboth for showing us this. Good to see we are still alive and kicking. I think we owe a lot to people who spend time in promoting this game on twitter and youtube as well :). Also the new guild and the work of Perrigrine was something that we really needed, so thanks for that.

I must say im proud to see that the rangers still are ranked as one of the more active guilds even if we had a lost compared to last year. With the balance problem we face its hard to keep the bigger players above champion happy in our guild. But maybe that is something for next year.

Anyway wanted to say thank you all for the fun!
Awww ... shoot! You are totally correct. A big shout-out to those folks who have been helping with our promo. I am very sorry to have failed to mention them. Part of my problem is that those have been "unofficial" efforts not coordinated or overseen by wizards, and so when I went to do my annual assessment, these efforts did not register as I reread the game boards and various logs in-game. Alas. Sorry to those of you who have been so helpful here! Keep it up!!

G.
Mmmmmm ... pie ...

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gorboth
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Re: State of the Donut - 2016

Post by gorboth » 10 Jan 2017 18:35

morgzaash wrote:Amazing year-summary from Jan to Dec. I'd love to see brief summary every month.
Thanks! Sorry, but the annual report and my end-of-Summer update are all you'll be getting from our volunteer wizard workforce. ;-)

G.
Mmmmmm ... pie ...

Celemir
Wanderer
Posts: 64
Joined: 11 Mar 2016 10:02

Re: State of the Donut - 2016

Post by Celemir » 10 Jan 2017 19:00

Ouch what a drop from the kenders. I must sadly confess that I have some blame in that drop.
While I think kenders thematically is one of the best guilds in the game, loads of emotes and stuff, full role-playing heaven.
It was with sad hard that I left but the combat/thieving mechanics are just not up to par. I suffered no matter what I did.
long kill and down time. (no matter what, grinding matters in this game) I could be just me, but it think i do better where i am now with less fuss.
The auto kleptomani, is a fun.. at first but becomes a chore later, should have stoped at peeking.
If this could be fixed I would return in a heart beat if possible.

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gorboth
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Re: State of the Donut - 2016

Post by gorboth » 10 Jan 2017 19:25

Celemir wrote:Ouch what a drop from the kenders. I must sadly confess that I have some blame in that drop.
While I think kenders thematically is one of the best guilds in the game, loads of emotes and stuff, full role-playing heaven.
It was with sad hard that I left but the combat/thieving mechanics are just not up to par. I suffered no matter what I did.
long kill and down time. (no matter what, grinding matters in this game) I could be just me, but it think i do better where i am now with less fuss.
The auto kleptomani, is a fun.. at first but becomes a chore later, should have stoped at peeking.
If this could be fixed I would return in a heart beat if possible.
A recode of the Kender guild is underway. I did not specifically mention it in my post above because in that review I only like to list things that have actually been accomplished and made live in the game. Keep your eyes open for it, as well as other guild improvements in 2017!

G.
Mmmmmm ... pie ...

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kirsach
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Re: State of the Donut - 2016

Post by kirsach » 10 Jan 2017 22:33

Thanks Gorboth from your report. Its great to hear and see these numbers of players onlie. But I see one big conclusion from this report:
We need new areas to exp, or revised other that now are useles (trollshaws, gobo caves, Kabal, etc)

We see new guilds, waiting for next to open or recode, the number of players per hour rises in logarithmic progress, but one day we hit the border, when there will be no place to exp, all will be killed.

So except a small area in ME there was no big addition of exp areas in last few years. I hope this year it will change. Maybe finally Ravenloft will be open. We hear about this area for last two years, dont we?

Thalric
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Re: State of the Donut - 2016

Post by Thalric » 10 Jan 2017 22:40

Or... people will have to do something else than only grinding away.

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Kitriana
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Re: State of the Donut - 2016

Post by Kitriana » 11 Jan 2017 00:50

Very happy to see that the stats bear out what we have felt internally in the Union in terms of growth.
We look forward to seeing more of that as the population of the realms continues to grow.
If something I wrote sounds confusing ... assume you misunderstood it.

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