State of the Donut - 2020

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Cherek
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Joined: 04 Mar 2010 04:36

State of the Donut - 2020

Post by Cherek » 22 Jan 2021 13:33

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                    +=====================================+
                    |    THE STATE OF THE DONUT - 2020    |
                    +=====================================+
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|  Greetings fellow Genesisians,                                             |
|                                                                            |
|  It's that time of the year again. What time? Well, the time when we       |
|  look back at the previous year of course!                                 |
|                                                                            |
|============================================================================|
|                              THE PLAYER NUMBERS                            |
|============================================================================|
|                                                                            |
|  Let's start by taking a look at the average player numbers during 2020,   |
|  and then break it down into lots of different pieces.                     |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|   Average player activity by week for entire year, beginning Jan 01 2020   |
|                                                                            |
|------------+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----|
|    47.5    |    |    |     |X   |     |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    47.0    |    |    |     |X   |     |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    46.5    |    |    |     |X   |X    |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    46.0    |    |    |     |X   |X    |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    45.5    |    |    |    X|X  X|X    |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    45.0    |    |    |    X|X  X|X    |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    44.5    |    |    |    X|X XX|XX   |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    44.0    |    |    |    X|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    43.5    |    |    |   XX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    43.0    |    |    |   XX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    42.5    |    |    |   XX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    42.0    |    |    |   XX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    41.5    |    |    |   XX|XXXX|XXX  |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    41.0    |    |    |   XX|XXXX|XXX  |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    40.5    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXX  |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    40.0    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXX  |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    39.5    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXX X|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    39.0    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    38.5    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    38.0    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    37.5    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    37.0    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |
|    36.5    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX  |    |  X  |    |    |     |    |
|    36.0    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX  |    |  X X|    | X  | X   |    |
|    35.5    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |    |  X X|    | X  | X   |    |
|    35.0    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |    |  XXX|    | X  | X   |    |
|    34.5    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |    |  XXX|    |XX  | X   |   X|
|    34.0    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |    |  XXX|X   |XX  | X   |   X|
|    33.5    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX |    |  XXX|XX  |XX  | X   | X X|
|    33.0    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX | X  |  XXX|XX  |XX  |XXX  | XXX|
|    32.5    |    |    |  XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX | XX |  XXX|XX X|XX  |XXX  | XXX|
|    32.0    |    |    |X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX| XX | XXXX|XX X|XXX |XXX X| XXX|
|    31.5    |    |    |X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX| XX | XXXX|XX X|XXXX|XXX X|XXXX|
|    31.0    |    |    |X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX | XXXX|XX X|XXXX|XXX X|XXXX|
|    30.5    |    |    |X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX | XXXX|XX X|XXXX|XXX X|XXXX|
|    30.0    |    |  X |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX| XXXX|XX X|XXXX|XXX X|XXXX|
|    29.5    |X   |  X |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX X|XXXX|
|    29.0    |X   |  X |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    28.5    |X   |  X |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    28.0    |XX  | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    27.5    |XX  | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    27.0    |XX X|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    26.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    26.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    25.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    25.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    24.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    24.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    23.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    23.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    22.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    22.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    21.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    21.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    20.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    20.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    19.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    19.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| A  18.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| V  18.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| G  17.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    17.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| P  16.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| E  16.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| R  15.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    15.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| H  14.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| O  14.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| U  13.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| R  13.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    12.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| E  12.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| A  11.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| C  11.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| H  10.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
|    10.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| W   9.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| E   9.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| E   8.5    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
| K   8.0    |XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|
+------------+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+
|  Month     |Jan |Feb |Mar  |Apr |May  |Jun |Jul |Aug  |Sep |Oct |Nov  |Dec |
+------------+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+
|                                                                            |
|                Mean yearly average players per hour = 34.5                 |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|  Wow, that's a big spring spike. Greneth, who was promoted to liege of     |
|  promotion in February, thinks it's all his work. Now, I do think          |
|  Greneth's work this year definitely has had an effect on our players      |
|  numbers... but... sorry Greneth, that spring spike is of course related   |
|  to Covid-19 restrictions iRL. Suddenly, lots of people found themselves   |
|  with a lot of extra time, which caused a spike in player numbers for      |
|  almost all online games - including Genesis.                              |
|                                                                            |
|  So, did Covid-19 help make this the best year since we started            |
|  measuring player numbers back in 2008? Well, let's find out by comparing  |
|  2020 to the last 13 years.                                                |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|               Population Levels in APH over the last 13 Years              |
|                          ( quarterly histogram )                           |
|---------+------------------------------------------------------------------+
|  42.0   |                                                                  |
|  41.0   |                                                              X   |
|  40.0   |                                                 X            X   |
|  39.0   |                                                 X            X   |
|  38.0   |                                                XX    X       X   |
|  37.0   |                                               XXX    X       X   |
|  36.0   |                                               XXX   XX       X   |
|  35.0   |                                               XXX X XX       X   |
|  34.0   |                                               XXX X XX       X   |
|  33.0   |                                               XXX X XX       X   |
|  32.0   |                                               XXX XXXX X     XXX |
|  31.0   |                                            X XXXX XXXX XXX  XXXX |
|  30.0   |                                            X XXXX XXXX XXX  XXXX |
|  29.0   |                                           XX XXXX XXXX XXX  XXXX |
|  28.0   |                                       X   XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  27.0   |                                    X  X X XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  26.0   |                                    X  X X XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  25.0   |                                    X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  24.0   |                                    X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  23.0   |                                    X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  22.0   |                                    X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  21.0   |                                    XX X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  20.0   |                                  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  19.0   |   X                              X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  18.0   |   X                              X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  17.0   |   X  XX                          X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  16.0   |  XX  XXX         X               X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  15.0   | XXX  XXX         X               X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  14.0   | XXX  XXXX X     XX          X    X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  13.0   | XXX  XXXX X X   XXX         X    X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  12.0   | XXXX XXXX XXX  XXXX    X X  X X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  11.0   | XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX    X XXXX X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|  10.0   | XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX X XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|   9.0   | XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|   8.0   | XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
+---------+-----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| Qtr.    | 1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234 |
+---------+-----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
| Year    | 2008|2009|2010|2011|2012|2013|2014|2015|2016|2017|2018|2019|2020 |
+---------+-----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
|Yr. Ave  | 15.8|16.1|13.0|14.0|10.7|12.5|13.3|24.2|29.1|36.6|35.2|30.5|34.5 |
+---------+-----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
|                                                                            |
|  Turns out the answer is no. 2017 is still our best year, followed by      |
|  2018, and with 2020 on third place. However, the second quarter of 2020   |
|  now holds the record for the best quarter in recorded history.            |
|                                                                            |
|  Here's a more detailed look at our player numbers compared to 2019 only.  |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|             Comparing player activity over two time periods:               |
|                      A: Jan 01 2019 - Dec 31 2019                          |
|                      B: Jan 01 2020 - Dec 31 2020                          |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| Hour  |   A   |   B   | % change |  | Weekday   |   A   |   B   | % change |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+  +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 00.00 | 35.45 | 37.03 |   +4.43 %|  | Sunday    | 30.60 | 32.50 |   +6.21 %|
| 01.00 | 33.04 | 33.49 |   +1.35 %|  | Monday    | 30.37 | 34.31 |  +12.97 %|
| 02.00 | 31.95 | 32.72 |   +2.43 %|  | Tuesday   | 31.23 | 34.73 |  +11.18 %|
| 03.00 | 32.51 | 33.30 |   +2.42 %|  | Wednesday | 30.81 | 35.11 |  +13.94 %|
| 04.00 | 31.54 | 32.83 |   +4.07 %|  | Thursday  | 30.11 | 34.24 |  +13.69 %|
| 05.00 | 29.51 | 31.40 |   +6.41 %|  | Friday    | 29.91 | 34.29 |  +14.64 %|
| 06.00 | 26.00 | 29.15 |  +12.12 %|  | Saturday  | 30.66 | 33.45 |   +9.08 %|
| 07.00 | 23.54 | 28.64 |  +21.62 %|  +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 08.00 | 23.14 | 29.40 |  +27.07 %|                                         |
| 09.00 | 24.07 | 29.80 |  +23.80 %|                                         |
| 10.00 | 24.5  | 30.42 |  +24.17 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 11.00 | 25.34 | 30.39 |  +19.93 %|  |       - - - Field  Sizes - - -       |
| 12.00 | 26.77 | 31.04 |  +15.96 %|  | Number of days in Period A:     364  |
| 13.00 | 27.40 | 32.12 |  +17.18 %|  | Number of days in Period B:     365  |
| 14.00 | 28.87 | 33.79 |  +17.07 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 15.00 | 31.12 | 36.97 |  +18.79 %|                                         |
| 16.00 | 33.44 | 39.08 |  +16.85 %|                                         |
| 17.00 | 35.28 | 40.20 |  +13.93 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 18.00 | 36.91 | 40.93 |  +10.89 %|  |           Overall Summary            |
| 19.00 | 39.00 | 41.94 |   +7.52 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 20.00 | 40.51 | 44.17 |   +9.04 %|  | Overall average for Period A:  30.53 |
| 21.00 | 41.04 | 44.83 |   +9.23 %|  | Overall average for Period B:  34.09 |
| 22.00 | 39.43 | 43.80 |  +11.09 %|  |                                      |
| 23.00 | 38.88 | 40.83 |   +5.02 %|  | Overall increase/decrease:  +11.66 % |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+--------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|  So, in short, we're up 11.66% compared to last year. Yay! Although, if    |
|  we exclude the Q2-spike, the player numbers are actually almost           |
|  identical to 2019. To be honest, I would have preferred somewhat lower    |
|  numbers and no global pandemic, but hopefully Covid-19 has at least       |
|  come with a small silver lining by introducing a few more new players to  |
|  our wonderful world.                                                      |
|                                                                            |
|  Now, let's look at a new stat for this year. With the help of Lucius and  |
|  Cotillion, we now have a better way to measure how many new players we    |
|  get and how many players leave the tutorial. Let's take a look at the     |
|  last five years.                                                          |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|            New players created / players leaving the tutorial              |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Year   | New player | Avg. per |  Best   |  Worst  | Leaving  | Leaving   |
|         | total      | day      |  day    |  Day    | tutorial | tutorial  |
|         |            |          |         |         | total    | %         |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  2016   |   12,465   |   34.1   |    81   |    7    |  1,445   |  11.6%    |
|  2017   |   15,647   |   42.9   |    88   |   14    |  2,012   |  12.9%    |
|  2018   |   10,902   |   29.9   |    97   |    5    |  1,982   |  18.2%    |
|  2019   |    8,235   |   22.6   |    97   |    4    |  1,693   |  20.6%    |
|  2020   |    7,694   |   21.0   |   321   |    3    |  1,451   |  18.9%    |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Hmm. It looks like things are going in the wrong direction. Good thing    |
|  we have a liege of promotion now! One interesting thing to note is that   |
|  even though the player numbers dropped between 2017 and 2019, the         |
|  percentage of players leaving the tutorial went up. That number remained  |
|  pretty high for 2020 as well, so that's promising.                        |
|                                                                            |
|  Another thing to note is that even though 2020 had lowest numbers of new  |
|  players, it also had the by far best day. What happened there? Well, what |
|  happened was that some players on Discord made a joint effort to post the |
|  link to Genesis on various forums and websites, which caused a massive    |
|  spike of new players. This clearly shows that you players can do A LOT to |
|  help improve our numbers, so, please keep doing that. It works!           |
|                                                                            |
|  Okay, let's move on to the guild statistics.                              |
|                                                                            |
|  NOTE: In the statistics below, guilds with two distinct factions (Rangers |
|  and Dragonarmy) count as one guild. Also, since we allow players to idle  |
|  indefinitely in Genesis, these numbers should be taken with a grain of    |
|  salt. A guild with a player, or players, that idle 24/7 may seem very     |
|  active, while in fact they are not. On the other hand, guilds that have   |
|  rules preventing their members from idling may look quite inactive, but   |
|  the players are actually always active when they do play. There are of    |
|  course other factors in play as well, for example some guilds are much    |
|  more restrictive about taking on new members than others, and some guilds |
|  only allow players of specific race(s) and/or align.                      |
|                                                                            |
|  That said, the below statistics still give an indication about which      |
|  guilds are the most popular, even if it's not the whole truth.            |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|             Average number of active players per guild per day             |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       2019 Ranking                    2020 Ranking                         |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       1.   Mercs     (6.164)          1.  -Mercs     (5.673)               |
|       2.  -SoHM      (2.552)          2.   SoHM      (3.153)               |
|       3.   DArmy     (2.464)          3.   DArmy     (2.632)               |
|       4.   WoHS      (1.370)          4.   Angmar    (1.586)               |
|       5.   Knives    (1.338)          5. ^+Glads     (1.252)               |
|       6.   Rangers   (1.115)          6.  ^Calians   (1.030)               |
|       7.   Angmar    (0.906)          7.   Neidar    (0.972)               |
|       8.   Clerics   (0.708)          8.   Clerics   (0.956)               |
|       9.   Neidar    (0.706)          9.   Knives    (0.950)               |
|       10.  Monks     (0.703)          10. !WoHS      (0.934)               |
|       11.  Cadets    (0.700)          11.  Rangers   (0.887)               |
|       12.  Ogres     (0.585)          12.  Cadets    (0.873)               |
|       13.  Glads     (0.472)          13.  Archers   (0.857) new!          |
|       14.  Calians   (0.401)          14.  Mages     (0.471)               |
|       15.  Knights   (0.351)          15.  Monks     (0.438)               |
|       16.  Academy   (0.214)          16. *Union     (0.394)               |
|       17.  Mages     (0.170)          17.  Knights   (0.369)               |
|       18.  Union     (0.109)          18.!@Ogres     (0.279)               |
|       19.  PoT       (0.085)          19.  PoT       (0.208)               |
|       20.  Kender    (0.021)          20.  Academy   (0.169)               |
                                        21.  Kender    (0.024)               |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|               + Biggest APH gain (Glads at +0.780)                         |
|               - Biggest APH loss (Mercs at -0.491)                         |
|               * Biggest growth   (Union at 261% growth)                    |
|               @ Biggest decline  (Ogres at 52% decline)                    |
|               ^ Biggest rise     (Glads & Calians up 8 ranks)              |
|               ! Biggest fall     (WoHS & Ogres down 6 ranks)               |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Unsurprisingly the neutral free-to-join options continue to rule Genesis  |
|  in terms of player numbers. Mercs have lost some members, but both SoHM   |
|  and Gladiators have gained members. The bottom also remain fairly stable, |
|  with the Kenders hopelessly last again. Overall, it looks like things     |
|  have evened out a bit, and the difference between the most and least      |
|  popular guilds is a little smaller than last year.                        |
|                                                                            |
|  Let's compare the guilds by align, and see if there has been any notable  |
|  changes since last year.                                                  |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|                       Guild activity by align - 2020                       |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Good-aligned         Neutral-aligned       Evil-aligned             |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Calians  1.030       Mercs    5.673          DArmy    2.632         |
|        Neidar   0.972       SoHM     3.153          Angmar   1.586         |
|        Clerics  0.956       Glads    1.252          Knives   0.950         |
|        Rangers  0.887       WoHS     0.934          Mages    0.471         |
|        Archers  0.857       Cadets   0.873          PoT      0.208         |
|        Knights  0.369       Monks    0.438                                 |
|        Kender   0.024       Union    0.394                                 |
|                             Ogres    0.279                                 |
|                             Academy  0.169                                 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Total:    5.673                13.165                5.847                |
|  Total %:  23.0%                53.3%                 23.7%                |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|                      Guild activity by align - 2019                        |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Good-aligned         Neutral-aligned       Evil-aligned             |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Rangers  1.115       Mercs    6.164        DArmy    2.464           |
|        Clerics  0.708       SoHM     2.552        Knives   1.338           |
|        Neidar   0.706       WoHS     1.370        Angmar   0.906           |
|        Calians  0.401       Monks    0.703        Mages    0.170           |
|        Knights  0.351       Cadets   0.700        PoT      0.085           |
|        Kender   0.021       Ogres    0.585                                 |
|                             Glads    0.472                                 |
|                             Academy  0.214                                 |
|                             Union    0.109                                 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Total:   3.302                12.869                4.963                 |
|  Total %: 15.6%                60.9%                 23.5%                 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Interesting! The evil guilds have very similar numbers compared to last   |
|  year, but it looks like the neutral guilds have lost a big chunk of       |
|  members to goodie guilds. These numbers are impressively balanced         |
|  actually, with about half the players in neutral guilds, and a quarter    |
|  each in goodie and evil guilds. Can we get one third in each during 2021  |
|  for perfect balance? :)                                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  We have lots of player number statistics as usual, but what about wizard  |
|  numbers? We don't really have a system to track wizard numbers as we      |
|  track player numbers, and it's harder to measure as well, as most wizards |
|  spend a lot of time idle. However, we CAN look at the number of new       |
|  wizards. So, lets do just that.                                           |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|                          New wizards per year                              |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  2019: 4                                                                   |
|  2020: 12                                                                  |
|                                                                            |
|  Wow! That's quite the increase. Now, many new wizards don't stick         |
|  around for long, as most tend to be overwhelmed by the amount of time     |
|  and effort that is needed. Still, the more new wizards we get, the        |
|  bigger the chances are that some will turn out to be the next             |
|  superstar wizard. A 200% increase is promising for sure!                  |
|                                                                            |
|============================================================================|
|                            WIZARD ACCOMPLISHMENTS                          |
|============================================================================|
|                                                                            |
|  Trying to create a list of EVERYTHING that changed or was added to the    |
|  game is of course an impossible mission, but hopefully I have managed     |
|  to cover most of the major stuff.                                         |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  First Quarter 2020                                                        |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  - Gorboth steps down as keeper and is succeeded by Cherek.                |
|  - A new wizard position is added, and Greneth becomes the first ever      |
|    Liege of Promotion. (Cherek)                                            |
|  - A brand new equipment decay system is created. (Carnak, Arman, Cherek)  |
|  - The <nban> command is one of several small updates to the newbie pin    |
|    aimed to make it harder for spammers. (Cotillion, Mirandus, Cherek)     |
|  - The auction house receives an update. Various minor things are fixed    |
|    and it's also now possible to sell 'heaps' of items. (Cotillion)        |
|  - Ironstones are re-added to the game. (Arman)                            |
|  - A bug that has plagued the realms for a long time is finally fixed.     |
|    Players no longer need to worry about losing items if disconnected      |
|    while recovering items on login. (Cotillion)                            |
|  - EVENT: A cooking event is held. (Greneth)                               |
|  - NEW AREA: A haunted farm appears near Argos, Calia, and it comes        |
|    with a fun little quest too. (Brine)                                    |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Second Quarter 2020                                                       |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  - An introduction to magic in Genesis is added to the tutorial. (Arman)   |
|  - NEW AREA: The basement of Cair Andros opens. (Varian)                   |
|  - NEW AREA: The villages of Longbottom and Waymeet opens in Shire, along  |
|    with some fun shops and quests. (Raymundo)                              |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Third Quarter 2020                                                        |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  - NEW AREA: Throtyl Pass opens, allowing players to travel by foot from   |
|    the Solamnian plans to Sanction. (Arman)                                |
|    NEW GUILD: The drums of war beat loudly as the Throtyl Raiders          |
|    layman guild starts recruiting. (Arman)                                 |
|  - A global change to the acrobat skill is introduced, making it           |
|    useful in combat. (Ckrik, Arman)                                        |
|  - NEW AREA: A new Thanar Cathedral opens in Kabal. This area includes     |
|    a new Thanar boss, new quests, and new cool items. (Mirandus)           |
|  - NEW AREA: An oasis appears south of Tyr, which includes a new quest     |
|    and a new system for magic in Cirath. (Meton)                           |
|  - The player behind one of the most beloved characters in Genesis         |
|    history passes away, and a statue of Grampal is created in the          |
|    memorial Garden. (Cherek)                                               |
|                                                                            |
|                            We miss you Grampal.                            |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Fourth Quarter 2020                                                       |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  - Cherek steps down as Arch of Events, and is succeeded by Gorboth.       |
|  - EVENT: The brand new Trick-or-Treating event is held for the first      |
|    time, and it's a smashing success. (Gorboth)                            |
|  - EVENT: The Wheel-of-Fun lottery is back in Sparkle, and Teraven is      |
|    crowned the luckiest player in Genesis.                                 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Except the things mentioned above, the AoP team lead by Mirandus has,     |
|  as always, helped a lot of players. Also, many wizards have fixed a       |
|  lot of bugs. I also would like to mention Lucius, who has taken on the    |
|  massive job of going through domain after domain, fixing bugs and typos.  |
|  He's done with Sparkle, and has now moved on to Terel. Finally, I think   |
|  it's great to see that three brand new wizards added new content to the   |
|  game during 2020. Well done Brine, Meton and Raymundo!                    |
|                                                                            |
|============================================================================|
|                        WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?                          |
|============================================================================|
|                                                                            |
|  I ended my last State of the Donut post by listing a number of things I   |
|  would like to accomplish at some point during my time as Keeper, and      |
|  all of then still apply. I am not going to repeat myself here, so if you  |
|  are curious to know what those goals were, you can check my State of the  |
|  Donut post from last year.                                                |
|                                                                            |
|  Those were all long term goals, and I of couse did not expect to make     |
|  them all happen during 2020, but I am glad that we can check off one of   |
|  them, since we now have a Liege of Promotion.                             |
|                                                                            |
|  So, what will happen during 2021?                                         |
|                                                                            |
|  Well, as most of you know, since we're a volunteer workforce, it's        |
|  always dangerous to make promises, so I am not going to do that.          |
|  However, I am going to make some educated GUESSES for 2021:               |
|                                                                            |
|  - We're going to get a new magic system that will be more balanced        |
|    and more fun for everyone.                                              |
|                                                                            |
|  - We're going to have much more balanced races in Genesis before          |
|    2021 ends.                                                              |
|                                                                            |
|  - The Bloodsea will expand.                                               |
|                                                                            |
|  - Faerun will become bigger.                                              |
|                                                                            |
|  - Genesis will get a Patreon page, and the donated money will be used     |
|    for paid promotional ads.                                               |
|                                                                            |
|  - There will be more new players created during this year compared to     |
|    last year.                                                              |
|                                                                            |
|  - We're going to get more new wizards during 2021 than we got during      |
|    2020.                                                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  - There will be at least four events.                                     |
|                                                                            |
|  - At least one new guild will open.                                       |
|                                                                            |
|  - Cassius will stop idling and start killing people again.                |
|                                                                            |
|  Now, like I said, it's possible none of these things happens, but those   |
|  are my predictions. We'll find out in about 11 months if I was right      |
|  or wrong!                                                                 |
|                                                                            |
|  Cherek, The Established Keeper of Genesis                                 |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
                                                                             

Thalric
Rising Hero
Posts: 343
Joined: 14 Jun 2016 16:34

Re: State of the Donut - 2020

Post by Thalric » 27 Jan 2021 16:24

These guesses of yours...

Do you also have a guess about when we might see them happening?
Month, quarter... whatever you wish.

We're all very curious to see new stuff happening.

User avatar
Cherek
Site Admin
Posts: 3612
Joined: 04 Mar 2010 04:36

Re: State of the Donut - 2020

Post by Cherek » 27 Jan 2021 19:32

Thalric wrote:
27 Jan 2021 16:24
These guesses of yours...

Do you also have a guess about when we might see them happening?
Month, quarter... whatever you wish.

We're all very curious to see new stuff happening.
No, there are just too many variables. Wizards can suddenly lose motivation, realize projects take longer than expected, run into technical issues they can't solve, or (which is the most likely problem) get pulled away by RL. That's why I decided to only make guesses, and not set goals or make promises.

Always play the game as it is right now, and see updates and additions as icing on the cake - if it happens!

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