State of the Donut - 2021

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Cherek
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Joined: 04 Mar 2010 04:36

State of the Donut - 2021

Post by Cherek » 07 Mar 2022 16:23

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                    +=====================================+                  
                    |    THE STATE OF THE DONUT - 2021    |                   
                    +=====================================+                   
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|  Greetings fellow Genesisians,                                             |
|                                                                            |
|  Yes, yes, I know it's already March, but it would be a shame to break     |
|  the "State of the Donut"-tradition just because it's a few months late.   |
|                                                                            |
|============================================================================|
|                              THE PLAYER NUMBERS                            |
|============================================================================|
|                                                                            |
|  Let's start by taking a look at the average player numbers during 2021,   |
|  and then break it down into lots of different pieces.                     |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|    Average player activity by week for entire year, beginning Jan 01 2021  |
|                                                                            |
+------------+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|    38.5    |  X  |    |    |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    38.0    |  X  |    |X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    37.5    |  X  |  X |X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    37.0    |  X  |  X |X   |    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    36.5    | XX  |  XX|X   |X   |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    36.0    |XXXX |  XX|XXX |X   |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    35.5    |XXXX |X XX|XXXX|X   |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    35.0    |XXXX |X XX|XXXX|XX  |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    34.5    |XXXXX|X XX|XXXX|XX  |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    34.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX  |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    33.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX  |     |    |    |     |    |   X |    |    |
|    33.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX  |X    |    |    |     |    |   X |    |    |
|    32.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX  |X    |    |    |     |    |   X |    |X   |
|    32.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX  |X    |    |    |     |    |   X |    |X   |
|    31.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX  |X    |    |    |     |    |  XX |    |XX  |
|    31.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX X|XX   |    |    |     |    |  XX |    |XX  |
|    30.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |  XX |    |XXX |
|    30.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |  XXX|    |XXX |
|    29.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX  |    |    |     |    |  XXX|   X|XXX |
|    29.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX  |    |   X|     |  XX| XXXX|X  X|XXXX|
|    28.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX  |    |   X|     | XXX| XXXX|X  X|XXXX|
|    28.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX  |    |   X|     | XXX| XXXX|X  X|XXXX|
|    27.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX  |    |   X|X    | XXX| XXXX|X XX|XXXX|
|    27.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX |    |   X|X    | XXX| XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    26.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX |    |   X|X X  | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    26.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX |    |  XX|XXX X| XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    25.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX |    |  XX|XXXXX| XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    25.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX |X   | XXX|XXXXX| XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    24.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   | XXX|XXXXX| XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    24.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X   | XXX|XXXXX| XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    23.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX  | XXX|XXXXX| XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    23.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX  | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    22.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX | XXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    22.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    21.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    21.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    20.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    20.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    19.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    19.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| A  18.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| V  18.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| G  17.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    17.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| P  16.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E  16.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| R  15.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    15.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| H  14.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| O  14.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| U  13.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| R  13.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    12.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E  12.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| A  11.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| C  11.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| H  10.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    10.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| W   9.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E   9.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E   8.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| K   8.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
+------------+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|  Month     |Jan  |Feb |Mar |Apr |May  |Jun |Jul |Aug  |Sep |Oct  |Nov |Dec |
+------------+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|                                                                            |
|                Mean yearly average players per hour = 29.90                |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|  Compared to 2020, this graph is basically inverted, but 2020 was a        |
|  weird one due to Covid, so this year's graph looks much more normal.      |
|  As usual there is more activity in Genesis during the winter months       |
|  (in the northern hemisphere), and less activity during the summer.        |
|  That the numbers were especially high at the start of the year is         |
|  likely a leftover from Covid-restrictions. These restrictions started     |
|  to ease up a bit around spring in most parts of the world, and that       |
|  together with summer approaching meant our number dropped, which is       |
|  quite normal, and so is the increase during fall and winter. It looks     |
|  like we're back to business as usual in terms of our highs and lows in    |
|  player activity.                                                          |
|                                                                            |
|  So, how did we do compared to 2020?                                       |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|             Comparing player activity over two time periods:               |
|                      A: Jan 01 2020 - Dec 31 2020                          |
|                      B: Jan 01 2021 - Dec 31 2021                          |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+-----------+-------+-------+----------|
| Hour  |   A   |   B   | % change |  | Weekday   |   A   |   B   | % change |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+  +-----------+-------+-------+----------|
| 00.00 | 37.03 | 33.20 |  -10.31 %|  | Sunday    | 32.50 | 27.92 |  -14.08 %|
| 01.00 | 33.49 | 29.79 |  -11.04 %|  | Monday    | 34.31 | 29.63 |  -13.63 %|
| 02.00 | 32.72 | 28.30 |  -13.51 %|  | Tuesday   | 34.73 | 30.44 |  -12.33 %|
| 03.00 | 33.30 | 27.94 |  -16.09 %|  | Wednesday | 35.11 | 31.01 |  -11.66 %|
| 04.00 | 32.83 | 26.70 |  -18.67 %|  | Thursday  | 34.24 | 31.02 |   -9.40 %|
| 05.00 | 31.40 | 24.81 |  -20.98 %|  | Friday    | 34.29 | 30.51 |  -11.02 %|
| 06.00 | 29.15 | 23.09 |  -20.77 %|  | Saturday  | 33.45 | 28.75 |  -14.04 %|
| 07.00 | 28.64 | 23.25 |  -18.81 %|  +-----------+-------+-------+----------|
| 08.00 | 29.40 | 24.12 |  -17.97 %|                                         |
| 09.00 | 29.80 | 25.53 |  -14.33 %|                                         |
| 10.00 | 30.42 | 27.23 |  -10.46 %|  +--------------------------------------|
| 11.00 | 30.39 | 27.63 |   -9.08 %|  |       - - - Field  Sizes - - -       |
| 12.00 | 31.04 | 28.86 |   -7.03 %|  | Number of days in Period A:     365  |
| 13.00 | 32.12 | 29.68 |   -7.57 %|  | Number of days in Period B:     364  |
| 14.00 | 33.79 | 30.90 |   -8.56 %|  +--------------------------------------|
| 15.00 | 36.97 | 33.24 |  -10.09 %|                                         |
| 16.00 | 39.08 | 34.33 |  -12.13 %|                                         |
| 17.00 | 40.20 | 35.28 |  -12.24 %|  +--------------------------------------|
| 18.00 | 40.93 | 35.98 |  -12.08 %|  |           Overall Summary            |
| 19.00 | 41.94 | 37.43 |  -10.75 %|  +--------------------------------------+
| 20.00 | 44.17 | 39.57 |  -10.40 %|  | Overall average for Period A:  34.09 |
| 21.00 | 44.83 | 40.53 |   -9.58 %|  | Overall average for Period B:  29.90 |
| 22.00 | 43.80 | 39.37 |  -10.11 %|  |                                      |
| 23.00 | 40.83 | 36.78 |   -9.92 %|  | Overall increase/decrease:  -12.2 %  |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+--------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|  Yup, we are down 12.2%, but our numbers were clearly inflated during      |
|  2020 due to/thanks to Covid-19.                                           |
|                                                                            |
|  Now, let's have a look at all the years since we started collecting       |
|  player number data, and see how 2021 measures up.                         |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|               Population Levels in APH over the last 14 Years              |
|                          ( quarterly histogram )                           |
|----+-----------------------------------------------------------------------|
|42.0|                                                                       |
|41.0|                                                              X        |
|40.0|                                                 X            X        |
|39.0|                                                 X            X        |
|38.0|                                                XX    X       X        |
|37.0|                                               XXX    X       X        |
|36.0|                                               XXX   XX       X        |
|35.0|                                               XXX X XX       X   X    |
|34.0|                                               XXX X XX       X   X    |
|33.0|                                               XXX X XX       X   X    |
|32.0|                                               XXX XXXX X     XXX X    |
|31.0|                                            X XXXX XXXX XXX  XXXX X    |
|30.0|                                            X XXXX XXXX XXX  XXXX X    |
|29.0|                                           XX XXXX XXXX XXX  XXXX X  X |
|28.0|                                       X   XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XX X |
|27.0|                                    X  X X XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XX X |
|26.0|                                    X  X X XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|25.0|                                    X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|24.0|                                    X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|23.0|                                    X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|22.0|                                    X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|21.0|                                    XX X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|20.0|                                  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|19.0|   X                              X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|18.0|   X                              X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|17.0|   X  XX                          X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|16.0|  XX  XXX         X               X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|15.0| XXX  XXX         X               X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|14.0| XXX  XXXX X     XX          X    X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|13.0| XXX  XXXX X X   XXX         X    X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|12.0| XXXX XXXX XXX  XXXX    X X  X X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|11.0| XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX    X XXXX X  X XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
|10.0| XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX X XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
| 9.0| XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
| 8.0| XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX |
+----+-----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
|Qtr.| 1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234|1234 |
+----+-----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
|Year| 2008|2009|2010|2011|2012|2013|2014|2015|2016|2017|2018|2019|2020|2021 |
+----+-----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
|Ave | 15.8|16.1|13.0|14.0|10.7|12.5|13.3|24.2|29.1|36.6|35.2|30.5|34.5|29.9 |
+----+-----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+
|                                                                            |
|  Not too shabby. If we compare our numbers to 2019, which is the last      |
|  "pre-Covid year", the numbers are pretty similar. However, 2021 is        |
|  probably partly Covid-inflated too, so it's a bit worrying that the       |
|  numbers are slightly lower than 2019. On the other hand we also did a lot |
|  of major changes to the core mechanics of the game, which likely did not  |
|  have a positive effect on our player numbers. Hopefully, the end result   |
|  will be worth it (I definitely believe so), and many players who have     |
|  taken a break or left due to the changes will hopefully return.           |
|                                                                            |
|  If we look at the big picture, 2021 was still the 5th best year since     |
|  we started to measure player numbers.                                     |
|                                                                            |
|  That said, regardless of what happens in the real world, and what kind    |
|  of changes we make in the game, it would be much better to see our        |
|  numbers go UP instead of down. And for the numbers to go up, getting new  |
|  players is very helpful, so let's have a look at those stats.             |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|            New players created / players leaving the tutorial              |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Year   | New player | Avg. per |  Best   |  Worst  | Leaving  | Leaving   |
|         | total      | day      |  day    |  Day    | tutorial | tutorial  |
|         |            |          |         |         | total    | %         |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  2017   |   15,647   |   42.9   |    88   |   14    |  2,012   |  12.9%    |
|  2018   |   10,902   |   29.9   |    97   |    5    |  1,982   |  18.2%    |
|  2019   |    8,235   |   22.6   |    97   |    4    |  1,693   |  20.6%    |
|  2020   |    7,694   |   21.0   |   321   |    3    |  1,451   |  18.9%    |
|  2021   |    4,438   |   12.2   |    61   |    1    |    824   |  18.6%    |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  This is also somewhat worrying numbers. The number of new players who     |
|  try Genesis are clearly going down. It's positive that, even though the   |
|  numbers of new players are steadily going down between 2017 and 2021,     |
|  the average number of active players have remained fairly steady. So, it  |
|  seems like we're at least keeping most of the players we already have.    |
|  If we can "only" start increasing the number of new players, we           |
|  hopefully will see an increase in average player numbers as well. Easier  |
|  said than done of course, but we do have some plans in motion for that.   |
|  (more about that later).                                                  |
|                                                                            |
|  Okay, let's move on to the guild statistics.                              |
|                                                                            |
|  NOTE: In the statistics below, guilds with two distinct factions (Rangers |
|  and Dragonarmy) count as one guild. Also, since we allow players to idle  |
|  indefinitely in Genesis, these numbers should be taken with a grain of    |
|  salt. A guild with a player, or players, that idle 24/7 may seem very     |
|  active, while in fact they are not. On the other hand, guilds that have   |
|  rules preventing their members from idling may look quite inactive, but   |
|  the players are actually always active when they do play. There are of    |
|  course other factors in play as well, for example some guilds are much    |
|  more restrictive about taking on new members than others, and some guilds |
|  only allow players of specific race(s) and/or align.                      |
|                                                                            |
|  That said, the below statistics still give an indication about which      |
|  guilds are the most popular, even if it's not the whole truth.            |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|             Average number of active players per guild per day             |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       2020 Ranking                    2021 Ranking                         |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       1.  -Mercs     (5.673)          1.  +Mercs     (6.945)               |
|       2.   SoHM      (3.153)          2.   Vampires  (6.553) new!          |
|       3.   DArmy     (2.632)          3.   DArmy     (1.752)               |
|       4.   Angmar    (1.586)          4.  -SoHM      (1.728)               |
|       5.   Glads     (1.252)          5.   Knives    (1.546)               |
|       6.   Calians   (1.030)          6.   Rangers   (0.967)               |
|       7.   Neidar    (0.972)          7.   Glads     (0.936)               |
|       8.   Clerics   (0.956)          8.   Angmar    (0.928)               |
|       9.   Knives    (0.950)          9.   Clerics   (0.763)               |
|       10.  WoHS      (0.934)          10.  Neidar    (0.689)               |
|       11.  Rangers   (0.887)          11. ^Knights   (0.585)               |
|       12.  Cadets    (0.873)          12.  Calians   (0.516)               |
|       13.  Archers   (0.857)          13. @Ogres     (0.510)               |
|       14.  Mages     (0.471)          14.  Cadets    (0.456)               |
|       15.  Monks     (0.438)          15.  Archers   (0.439)               |
|       16.  Union     (0.394)          16.  Monks     (0.428)               |
|       17.  Knights   (0.369)          17.  Union     (0.310)               |
|       18.  Ogres     (0.279)          18. !WoHS      (0.260)               |
|       19.  PoT       (0.208)          19. *Kender    (0.285)               |
|       20.  Academy   (0.169)          20.  PoT       (0.184)               |
|       21.  Kender    (0.024)          21.  Academy   (0.115)               |
|                                       22. !Mages     (0.096)               |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|               + Biggest APH gain (Mercs at +1.272)                         |
|               - Biggest APH loss (SoHM at -1.425)                          |
|               * Biggest growth   (Kender at 1,088% growth)                 |
|               @ Biggest decline  (Ogres at 80% decline)                    |
|               ^ Biggest rise     (Knights up 6 ranks)                      |
|               ! Biggest fall     (Mages and WoHS down 8 ranks)             |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Hmmmm. Yes, we kind of suspected it, didn't we? Vamps and Mercs currently |
|  rule Genesis in term of active players. Or do they? We need to take       |
|  these numbers with an especially big grain of salt. First of all, due to  |
|  the unique "Layman first then Occupational/Layman"-setup of the Vampire   |
|  guild, most new vampires tend to be mercenaries as occupational guild and |
|  Vampires as layman guild - until the Vampire guilds eventually takes up   |
|  both slots. So, a Merc/Vamp will of course be counted "twice" in the      |
|  data above, just like a Merc/Monk would.                                  |
|                                                                            |
|  Also, it should be noted that some Vampires tend to be daydreaming (idle) |
|  more than most guilds, which also is inflating the numbers for both Mercs |
|  and Vampries in the data. Vampire numbers are of course also up due to    |
|  the "new guild"-effect.                                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  That said, at any given time there are 13,498 Merceneries and/or Vampires |
|  in the game. If we combine ALL the other TWENTY guilds, their numbers are |
|  almost exactly the same (13,493). So, the two most popular guilds beat    |
|  the other 20 guilds in terms of active players on average. Yes, the       |
|  numbers are inflated due to the occ/lay structure of the Vampire guild,   |
|  and an unusually large number of idling players, but it's hard to know    |
|  _how_ inflated the numbers are.                                           |
|                                                                            |
|  It would be interesting to hear what you players think about this. Why    |
|  are Mercs and Vampires so much more popular than other guilds? And        |
|  are they really, or are the numbers completely bonkers due to heavy       |
|  idling by these players? Feel free to share your thoughts on this by      |
|  replying to this post on the forums!                                      |
|                                                                            |
|  Now, what about the other guilds? Well, the caster guilds are plummeting  |
|  with SoHM losing the most players percentage-wise, while Mages and        |
|  WoHS tie for the biggest fall rank-wise. Considering the balance-changes  |
|  that has been going on this year, this is of course not surprising. We    |
|  kind of knew their numbers were down already, and this simply solidifies  |
|  that fact. Hopefully, as we are getting closer to finishing the magic     |
|  recode project, we will also see an improvement in terms of caster        |
|  numbers.                                                                  |
|                                                                            |
|  Not too many ups and down in the other guilds, except the Secret Society  |
|  of Kenders who is up over a THOUSAND percent. Hold on to your purses,     |
|  kenders are all over the realms! Well, not really, it just means their    |
|  numbers were super-low last year. Still, it's nice when the almost "dead" |
|  guilds stir a bit.                                                        |
|                                                                            |
|  Now, let's compare the guilds by align, and see if there has been any     |
|  notable changes since last year.                                          |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|                       Guild activity by align - 2021                       |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Good-aligned         Neutral-aligned       Evil-aligned             |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Calians  0.516       Mercs    6.945          DArmy    1.752         |
|        Neidar   0.689       Vampires 6.553          Angmar   0.928         |
|        Clerics  0.763       SoHM     1.728          Knives   1.546         |
|        Rangers  0.967       Glads    0.936          Mages    0.096         |
|        Archers  0.439       WoHS     0.260          PoT      0.184         |
|        Knights  0.585       Cadets   0.456                                 |
|        Kender   0.285       Monks    0.428                                 |
|                             Union    0.310                                 |
|                             Ogres    0.510                                 |
|                             Academy  0.115                                 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Total:    3.805                18.241                4.506                |
|  Total %:  14.3%                68.7%                 17.0%                |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|                       Guild activity by align - 2020                       |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Good-aligned         Neutral-aligned       Evil-aligned             |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Calians  1.030       Mercs    5.673          DArmy    2.632         |
|        Neidar   0.972       SoHM     3.153          Angmar   1.586         |
|        Clerics  0.956       Glads    1.252          Knives   0.950         |
|        Rangers  0.887       WoHS     0.934          Mages    0.471         |
|        Archers  0.857       Cadets   0.873          PoT      0.208         |
|        Knights  0.369       Monks    0.438                                 |
|        Kender   0.024       Union    0.394                                 |
|                             Ogres    0.279                                 |
|                             Academy  0.169                                 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Total:    5.673                13.165                5.847                |
|  Total %:  23.0%                53.3%                 23.7%                |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  No surprises here. The neutral guilds continue to rule Genesis in terms   |
|  of playes numbers, and with the addition of the Vampire guild their       |
|  chunk is now larger. The Good vs Evil balance remains very even, but      |
|  both sides lost quite a few players to the neutral guilds.                |
|                                                                            |
|  NOTE: Archers were placed in the good-aligned category in last year's     |
|  post, but since they allow you to be evil, and even have evil titles      |
|  as well as good, I think they belong in the neutral category.             |
|                                                                            |
|  Okay, that's enough stats about mortals. Let's take a look at how many    |
|  new wizards we got last year, and what our wizards have been up to.       |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|                          New wizards per year                              |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  2019: 4                                                                   |
|  2020: 12                                                                  |
|  2021: 7                                                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  Not as many new wizards as in 2020, but seven is a healthy number. We     |
|  also had a couple of experienced wizards return, and they've been quite   |
|  busy as you will see in the next section.                                 |
|                                                                            |
|============================================================================|
|                            WIZARD ACCOMPLISHMENTS                          |
|============================================================================|
|                                                                            |
|  Wow, 2021 has been a really busy year in the wizard world. Trying to      |
|  create a list of EVERYTHING that changed or was added to the game is      |
|  of course always an impossible mission, and especially this year, but     |
|  hopefully I have managed to cover most of the major stuff at least.       |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  First Quarter 2021                                                        |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  - A number of updates to equipment droprates and durability. (Cotillion)  |
|  - Skill costs updated to be more fair. (Cotillion)                        |
|  - UPDATED AREA: Code modernization/update to the troll caves and goblin   |
|    caves in Terel. (Lucius)                                                |
|  - Carnak succeeds Arman as Arch of Balance, while Arman takes over the    |
|    previously vacant position as Arch of Domains.                          |
|  - A massive project to change how both melee and magic combat works in    |
|    Genesis is launched. This project will go on throughout the year, and   |
|    there are many changes and tweaks to all sorts of things regarding      |
|    both melee combat and magic. (Carnak)                                   |
|  - Cotillion succeeds Mercade as Arch of Mudlib. For the first time in     |
|    several decades, Mercade is no longer part of the admin. Thank you for  |
|    everything you've done for Genesis all these years Mercade!             |
|  - NEW AREA: A new Khiraa temple opens in Raumdor. (Nerull)                |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Second Quarter 2021                                                       |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  - The arena in Tyr undergo renovations and modernisations. (Mirandus)     |
|  - The Mariners club moves to Palanthas and now provides players with      |
|    the ability to order customized ships. (Arman)                          |
|  - NEW SYSTEM: It's now possible to fish in many places around Krynn and   |
|    Ansalon. (Arman, inspired by Greneth's fishing rod project)             |
|  - NEW CLUB: The Distinguished Hunters and Anglers Association opens in    |
|    Palanthas. (Arman)                                                      |
|  - NEW AREA: A massive expansion allows sailing all over Krynn and         |
|    Ansalon. New islands, quests, creatures, and adventures awaits. (Arman) |
|  - The compare command is updated to be more useful. (Zizuph)              |
|  - A new <select> comand is added that allows selection of arrows for      |
|    those who use bows. (Ckrik)                                             |
|  - The Arch of Web position is removed and is replaced by the Liege of     |
|    Web position. Cherek is now the Liege of Web instead of Arch of Web.    |
|  - NEW SYSTEM: A brewery system is opened in Iron Delving along with       |
|    a new area and two new quests. Player-made brews are exported to inns   |
|    and pubs all over Krynn and Ansalon - and even as far away as Sparkle.  |
|    (Vitwitch)                                                              |
|  - Tapakah returns from slumber and becomes the new liege of Khalakhor.    |
|  - UPDATED AREA: The village of Sa Morgan in Khalakhor is updated and      |
|    expanded. Some new quests are also added. (Tapakah)                     |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Third Quarter 2021                                                        |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  - UPDATED QUESTS: The quest rewards for a number of quests in Khalakhor   |
|    are raised, including the (in)famous Cadu Maze. Players who completed   |
|    these quests before can "top up" their quest experience. (Tapakah)      |
|  - NEW AREA: A camp with Dunlendings, together with a new quest, appear    |
|    near Edoras. (Raymundo)                                                 |
|  - The auction house in Sparkle is impoved/updated. Most notably money     |
|    can now be transferred directly from a player's bank account when       |
|    bidding on really expensive items. (Zizuph)                             |
|  - NEW SYSTEM: A new housing system in launched along with a real estate   |
|    office in Sparkle. For the first time in Genesis history it's now       |
|    possible for players to purchase a permanent place to live in. The      |
|    first house, a quaint townhouse in Bree, is sold for 58,700 platinum    |
|    coins. (Zizuph, Varian, Cherek)                                         |
|  - Lilith returns from slumber and becomes the new liege of both Avenir    |
|    and Terel.                                                              |
|  - NEW GUILD: The Vampires of Faerun opens and suddenly there are          |
|    both coffins and coffin-hunters all over Genesis. (Nerull)              |
|  - UPDATED GUILD: The Dragon Order is recoded and updated. (Ckrik)         |
|  - NEW AREA: A new area, quest, and boss-encounter for myths is added      |
|    to Raumdor, along with other smaller updates to Raumdor. (Nerull)       |
|  - UPDATED AREA: Several old areas in Calia are updated. Most notably      |
|    the Satyr area is updated and expanded. (Greneth)                       |
|  - UPDATED AREA: Numerous updates and bug fixes to many places in          |
|    Avenir and Terel. (Lilith)                                              |
|  - New alchemy-related content is added to Faerun. (Nerull)                |
|  - Hundreds(!) of bugs are fixed in Khalakhor, and the magic map           |
|    coverage of the domain is also expanded. (Tapakah, Treacher)            |
|  - NEW AREA: A new and larger Golbar camp opens in Cadu. (Treacher)        |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Fourth Quarter 2021                                                       |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  - The mounts in Tyr are updated. (Meton)                                  |
|  - Cadu gets a new quest, the first in a loooooong time. (Treacher)        |
|  - NEW SYSTEM: Various pieces of equipment are updated to also become      |
|    unarmed enhancers, which, (as the name implies) will aid players in     |
|    unarmed combat. (Ckrik, Zizuph)                                         |
|  - GUILD UPDATED: The Blademaster guild is updated with a new skill and    |
|    a new ability. (Tapakah)                                                |
|  - AREA UPDATED: The Underdark in Avenir is expanded. (Lilith)             |
|  - AREA UPDATED: The Bazaar Museum in Avenir is expanded. (Lilith)         |
|  - AREA UPDATED: A new circle for unarmed sparring opens in Avenir, and    |
|    there are also minor updates to the Ziggurat. (Lilith)                  |
|  - AREA UPDATED: The port area in Avenir is updated to allow fishing,      |
|    and a new quest is added as well. (Lilith)                              |
|  - A new service in Palanthas makes it possible for players to change      |
|    their stat focus without going suicidal. (Zizuph, Cherek)               |
|  - NEW AREA: The catacombs of Sybarus on the isle of dead opens. In this   |
|    spooky area players can find a number of new interesting artifacts, as  |
|    well as several new quests. (Lilith)                                    |
|  - NEW AREA: Two new camps and a new quest appears in Cirath. (Meton)      |
|  - Carnak steps down as Arch of Balance and is succeeded by Arman while    |
|    Cherek takes over Arman's old role as Arch of Domains.                  |
|  - Arman, together with Zizuph and Ckrik in the AoB team, takes over the   |
|    massive melee and magic recode project started by Carnak.               |
|  - NEW AREA: It's now possible to sail the waters in and around            |
|    Khalakhor. (Tapakah)                                                    |
|  - NEW AREA: A new area opens northwest of Port Macdunn. (Tapakah)         |
|  - EVENT: The Trick-or-Treating event is updated and held again, and it's  |
|    even more fun this time. (Gorboth)                                      |
|  - Armour weights are adjusted to make more sense. (Ckrik)                 |
|  - EVENT: A brand new Genesis Advent Calendar Event is held. It's          |
|    possibly the weirdest and most quirky event ever made. (Gorboth)        |
|  - EVENT: The Wheel-of-Fun lottery is back in Sparkle, and Magius is       |
|    crowned the luckiest player in Genesis. (Cherek)                        |
|  - NEW SYSTEM: Various magical artifacts throughout the realms are updated |
|    to also become spell enchancers. This is a major part of the brand      |
|    new magic system that will be rolled out during 2022. (Zizuph, Arman)   |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Wow, that's a lot of things. And I probably missed a bunch of stuff too.  |
|  Actually, this year has without a doubt been the busiest year in the      |
|  wizard world in a very long time, and 2022 looks to be just as busy, or   |
|  busier. The wizard world is currently bustling with both activity and     |
|  positivity, and that's great for Genesis!                                 |
|                                                                            |
|============================================================================|
|                        WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?                          |
|============================================================================|
|                                                                            |
|  I ended my last State of the Donut post by making a number of guesses     |
|  (not predictions or goals) about what I thought would happen during       |
|  2021. So, let's start by checking how that went. These were my guesses    |
|  for 2021:                                                                 |
|                                                                            |
|  - We're going to get a new magic system that will be more balanced        |
|    and more fun for everyone.                                              |
|  * We're not there yet, but we did get started, and we got quite far.      |
|                                                                            |
|  - We're going to have much more balanced races in Genesis before          |
|    2021 ends.                                                              |
|  * Nope.                                                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  - The Bloodsea will expand.                                               |
|  * It sure did, way more than I had thought too. And sailing even          |
|    expanded beyond Krynn/Ansalon!                                          |
|                                                                            |
|  - Faerun will become bigger.                                              |
|  * Well, the room count did not change that much, but quite a bit of new   |
|    content, including a new guild has been added, so I am counting this    |
|    as a correct guess.                                                     |
|                                                                            |
|  - Genesis will get a Patreon page, and the donated money will be used     |
|    for paid promotional ads.                                               |
|  * We do have a Patreon page, but it's not live yet, so it does not        |
|    count as a correct guess.                                               |
|                                                                            |
|  - There will be more new players created during this year compared to     |
|    last year.                                                              |
|  * Nope.                                                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  - We're going to get more new wizards during 2021 than we got during      |
|    2020.                                                                   |
|  * Nope, we got 5 fewer new wizards, but still more than 2019 at least.    |
|                                                                            |
|  - There will be at least four events.                                     |
|  * Close, there was three events during 2021.                              |
|                                                                            |
|  - At least one new guild will open.                                       |
|  * Yes, Vampires opened. And we also got a new club (Anglers), and a       |
|    guild recoded (Dragon Order).                                           |
|                                                                            |
|  - Cassius will stop idling and start killing people again.                |
|  * This was meant as a joke, but some people saw it like I was egging      |
|    Cassius on. That was not the intention at all. I think he was           |
|    involved in killing some players, though, so my guess ended up being    |
|    correct.                                                                |
|                                                                            |
|  All in all, I only got 4 of 10 guesses right (40%). I really thought I    |
|  would do better. On the flip side, A LOT of very positive things          |
|  happened during 2021 that I did not see coming at all. This goes to show  |
|  how unpredictable the wizard world can be, and this is also the reason    |
|  we rarely make promises.                                                  |
|                                                                            |
|  So, what will happen during 2022?                                         |
|                                                                            |
|  Since it's already early March, I am making my guesses for 2022 with      |
|  a bit more knowledge. Hopefully this little "cheat" will help me beat     |
|  last year's poor guesses. I clearly need it!                              |
|                                                                            |
|  These are my somewhat educated GUESSES for 2022:                          |
|                                                                            |
|  - The new magic system will be completed, and magic and melee will be     |
|    much better balanced and fun.                                           |
|                                                                            |
|  - The Ranger guild will be recoded.                                       |
|                                                                            |
|  - Two or more layman guilds will open.                                    |
|                                                                            |
|  - Two or more houses will be added.                                       |
|                                                                            |
|  - The Petron page will go live and we will have continuous ads for        |
|    Genesis running.                                                        |
|                                                                            |
|  - We will get more new players during 2022 compared to 2021.              |
|                                                                            |
|  - There will be at least three new areas of decent size added to          |
|    the game.                                                               |
|                                                                            |
|  Now, like I said, it's possible none of these things happens, but those   |
|  are my predictions. We'll find out in about 10 months if I was right      |
|  or wrong!                                                                 |
|                                                                            |
|  Cherek, The Recognized Keeper of Genesis                                  |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
                                                                              

Thalric
Rising Hero
Posts: 343
Joined: 14 Jun 2016 16:34

Re: State of the Donut - 2021

Post by Thalric » 02 May 2022 09:57

I think you should begin keeping track of character alignment, instead of supposed guild alignment.
Then I believe the "neutral" faction will shift heavily to the evil side. :)

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Cherek
Site Admin
Posts: 3612
Joined: 04 Mar 2010 04:36

Re: State of the Donut - 2021

Post by Cherek » 08 May 2022 13:54

Thalric wrote:
02 May 2022 09:57
I think you should begin keeping track of character alignment, instead of supposed guild alignment.
Then I believe the "neutral" faction will shift heavily to the evil side. :)
You are probably right, I am not sure if it's realistic to measure that though, as many players align tend to fluctuate a lot during a year.

TaranGoatWalker
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Posts: 191
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Location: Somewhere

Re: State of the Donut - 2021

Post by TaranGoatWalker » 08 May 2022 16:12

Back in the day, snalshotss of players align/mortal were done... might be nice to do soemthing like that once a month?
Stabby stabby stab stab.

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Cherek
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Posts: 3612
Joined: 04 Mar 2010 04:36

Re: State of the Donut - 2021

Post by Cherek » 09 May 2022 03:51

TaranGoatWalker wrote:
08 May 2022 16:12
Back in the day, snalshotss of players align/mortal were done... might be nice to do soemthing like that once a month?
A snapshot of currently logged in players align? Or something more advanced than that?

TaranGoatWalker
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Posts: 191
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Location: Somewhere

Re: State of the Donut - 2021

Post by TaranGoatWalker » 09 May 2022 08:03

Just a snapshot of align and/or mortal, to get a feel of the realms. Both have been done seperately in the past iirc.
Stabby stabby stab stab.

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Cherek
Site Admin
Posts: 3612
Joined: 04 Mar 2010 04:36

Re: State of the Donut - 2021

Post by Cherek » 10 May 2022 14:06

TaranGoatWalker wrote:
09 May 2022 08:03
Just a snapshot of align and/or mortal, to get a feel of the realms. Both have been done seperately in the past iirc.
Probably something Gorboth has generated somehow. He's the statistical nerd.. err expert upstairs.

TaranGoatWalker
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Posts: 191
Joined: 04 Aug 2020 23:23
Location: Somewhere

Re: State of the Donut - 2021

Post by TaranGoatWalker » 10 May 2022 21:51

Cherek wrote:
10 May 2022 14:06
TaranGoatWalker wrote:
09 May 2022 08:03
Just a snapshot of align and/or mortal, to get a feel of the realms. Both have been done seperately in the past iirc.
Probably something Gorboth has generated somehow. He's the statistical nerd.. err expert upstairs.
Would be neat if you could re-run it :D
(Or get Gorbie to I guess?)
Stabby stabby stab stab.

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