State of the Donut - 2022

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Cherek
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Joined: 04 Mar 2010 04:36

State of the Donut - 2022

Post by Cherek » 09 Feb 2023 19:04

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                    +=====================================+
                    |    THE STATE OF THE DONUT - 2022    |
                    +=====================================+
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|  Greetings fellow Genesisians,                                             |
|                                                                            |
|  Okay, it's time to take a look at last year's statistics and also peek    |
|  into the crystal ball to try to figure out what will happen in 2023.      |
|                                                                            |
|============================================================================|
|                              THE PLAYER NUMBERS                            |
|============================================================================|
|                                                                            |
|  Let's start by taking a look at the average player numbers during 2022    |
|  and then break it down into lots of different pieces.                     |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|  Average player activity by week for entire year, beginning Jan 01, 2022.  |
|                                                                            |
+------------+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|    37.5    |     |    |  XX|    |     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    37.0    |     |    |  XX|   X|     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    36.5    |     |    |  XX|   X|     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    36.0    |   X |    | XXX|   X|     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    35.5    |   X |  X | XXX|   X|     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    35.0    |   X |  XX| XXX|   X|     |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    34.5    |  XX |  XX| XXX|   X|X    |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    34.0    |  XX |X XX| XXX|  XX|X    |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    33.5    |  XX |XXXX| XXX|X XX|X    |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    33.0    |X XX |XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X    |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    32.5    |X XX |XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X    |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    32.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X    |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    31.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X    |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    31.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X    |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    30.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    30.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    29.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    29.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX   |    |    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    28.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX   |X  X|    |     |    |     |    |    |
|    28.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX   |X  X|    |     |    |   X |X   |  X |
|    27.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX X|X  X|    |     |    |   X |XX  | XX |
|    27.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX X|X  X| XX | XX  |X   |  XXX|XX  | XX |
|    26.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX X| XX | XX  |X   |  XXX|XX  |XXX |
|    26.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX| XX  |X   |  XXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    25.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX| XX  |X   |  XXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    25.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX |X   |  XXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    24.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX |X   | XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    24.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX |X X |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    23.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    23.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    22.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    22.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    21.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    21.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    20.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    20.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    19.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    19.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| A  18.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| V  18.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| G  17.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    17.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| P  16.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E  16.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| R  15.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    15.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| H  14.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| O  14.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| U  13.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| R  13.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    12.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E  12.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| A  11.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| C  11.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| H  10.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
|    10.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| W   9.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E   9.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| E   8.5    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
| K   8.0    |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|
+------------+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|  Month     |Jan  |Feb |Mar |Apr |May  |Jun |Jul |Aug  |Sep |Oct  |Nov |Dec |
+------------+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
|                                                                            |
|                Mean yearly average players per hour = 28.92                |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                                            |
|  Well, this is very similar to the graph of 2021. Player numbers are       |
|  up during the winter months and lower during the summer, as always.       |
|  However, it is interesting to note that the summer decline wasn't as      |
|  big this year, and the 'winter peak' numbers were not as high as in       |
|  2021. So, while the overall average number of players were almost the     |
|  same for 2021 and 2022, we had more even player numbers throughout        |
|  the year in 2022. Let's compare 2021 and 2022 in more detail.             |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|             Comparing player activity over two time periods:               |
|                      A: Jan 01 2021 - Dec 31 2021                          |
|                      B: Jan 01 2022 - Dec 31 2022                          |
|-------+-------+-------+----------+--+-----------+-------+-------+----------|
| Hour  |   A   |   B   | % change |  | Weekday   |   A   |   B   | % change |
|-------+-------+-------+----------+  +-----------+-------+-------+----------|
| 00.00 | 33.20 | 30.07 |   -9.42 %|  | Sunday    | 27.92 | 28.65 |   +2.62 %|
| 01.00 | 29.79 | 27.04 |   -9.22 %|  | Monday    | 29.63 | 29.71 |   +0.28 %|
| 02.00 | 28.30 | 25.98 |   -8.20 %|  | Tuesday   | 30.44 | 29.21 |   -4.04 %|
| 03.00 | 27.94 | 26.39 |   -5.54 %|  | Wednesday | 31.01 | 28.43 |   -8.32 %|
| 04.00 | 26.70 | 26.29 |   -1.53 %|  | Thursday  | 31.02 | 28.89 |   -6.84 %|
| 05.00 | 24.81 | 25.48 |   +2.70 %|  | Friday    | 30.51 | 29.02 |   -4.87 %|
| 06.00 | 23.09 | 23.42 |   +1.42 %|  | Saturday  | 28.75 | 28.50 |   -0.87 %|
| 07.00 | 23.25 | 22.98 |   -1.16 %|  +-----------+-------+-------+----------|
| 08.00 | 24.12 | 24.72 |   +2.49 %|                                         |
| 09.00 | 25.53 | 25.97 |   +1.74 %|                                         |
| 10.00 | 27.23 | 27.28 |   +0.17 %|  +--------------------------------------|
| 11.00 | 27.63 | 27.12 |   -1.83 %|  |       - - - Field  Sizes - - -       |
| 12.00 | 28.86 | 27.78 |   -3.72 %|  | Number of days in Period A:     364  |
| 13.00 | 29.68 | 29.03 |   -2.18 %|  | Number of days in Period B:     364  |
| 14.00 | 30.90 | 29.92 |   -3.18 %|  +--------------------------------------|
| 15.00 | 33.24 | 31.68 |   -4.67 %|                                         |
| 16.00 | 34.33 | 32.79 |   -4.48 %|                                         |
| 17.00 | 35.28 | 33.75 |   -4.32 %|  +--------------------------------------|
| 18.00 | 35.98 | 35.39 |   -1.64 %|  |           Overall Summary            |
| 19.00 | 37.43 | 37.48 |   +0.15 %|  +--------------------------------------|
| 20.00 | 39.57 | 38.55 |   -2.58 %|  | Overall average for Period A:  29.90 |
| 21.00 | 40.53 | 38.09 |   -6.01 %|  | Overall average for Period B:  28.92 |
| 22.00 | 39.37 | 37.34 |   -5.15 %|  |                                      |
| 23.00 | 36.78 | 34.33 |   -6.64 %|  | Overall increase/decrease:  -3.29 %  |
|-------+-------+-------+----------+--+--------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Yeah, as I already mentioned above, our player numbers in 2022 are very   |
|  close to our player numbers in 2021. A slight decline, though, which      |
|  always is sad to see, even if it's a very small decline.                  |
|                                                                            |
|  Now, let's have a look at all the years since we started collecting       |
|  player number data and see how 2022 measures up. Please note that in      |
|  order for the graph to fit I have removed the quarterly details in the    |
|  below graph. From now on, this graph will only show the total average     |
|  number of players for each year (not broken down into quarters).          |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|               Population levels in APH over the last 15 years              |
|                                                                            |
|----+-----------------------------------------------------------------------|
|40.0|                                                                       |
|39.0|                                                                       |
|38.0|                                                                       |
|37.0|                                                                       |
|36.0|                                          XX                           |
|35.0|                                          XX  XX                       |
|34.0|                                          XX  XX      XX               |
|33.0|                                          XX  XX      XX               |
|32.0|                                          XX  XX      XX               |
|31.0|                                          XX  XX      XX               |
|30.0|                                          XX  XX  XX  XX  XX           |
|29.0|                                      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|28.0|                                      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|27.0|                                      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|26.0|                                      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|25.0|                                      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|24.0|                                  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|23.0|                                  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|22.0|                                  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|21.0|                                  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|20.0|                                  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|19.0|                                  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|18.0|                                  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|17.0|                                  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|16.0|      XX  XX                      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|15.0|      XX  XX                      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|14.0|      XX  XX      XX              XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|13.0|      XX  XX  XX  XX          XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|12.0|      XX  XX  XX  XX      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|11.0|      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|10.0|      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
| 9.0|      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
| 8.0|      XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX       |
|--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---------|
|Year|      08 |09 |10 |11 |12 |13 |14 |15 |16 |17 |18 |19 |20 |21 |22       |
|--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---------|
|Ave |      15 |16 |13 |14 |10 |12 |13 |24 |29 |36 |35 |30 |34 |29 |28       |
|    |      .8 |.1 |.0 |.0 |.7 |.5 |.3 |.2 |.1 |.6 |.2 |.5 |.5 |.9 |.9       |
|--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---------|
|                                                                            |
|  Okay, so what do we make of this? Well, first of all, the numbers in 2022 |
|  and at least part of 2021 are definitely affected by the Covid pandemic,  |
|  so I think we almost have to ignore those years as our numbers went up    |
|  due to a global iRL event we had no control over. I think it makes more   |
|  sense to compare our numbers to 2017, 2018, and 2019. As you can see,     |
|  we are currently in a decline, but a decline that seems to be relatively  |
|  slow at the moment. But, why are our player numbers declining?            |
|                                                                            |
|  I know some of you feel that the amount of major changes to the game in   |
|  recent years have had a negative effect on player numbers. While this     |
|  can certainly effect player numbers, I think the effect is overall quite  |
|  small, and that the real key to why numbers are down is found in the      |
|  below stats.                                                              |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|            New players created / players leaving the tutorial              |
|     (No data from previous years as we started measuring this in 2017)     |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Year   | New player | Avg. per |  Best   |  Worst  | Leaving  | Leaving   |
|         | total      | day      |  day    |  Day    | tutorial | tutorial  |
|         |            |          |         |         | total    | %         |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  2017   |   15,647   |   42.9   |    88   |   14    |  2,012   |  12.9%    |
|  2018   |   10,902   |   29.9   |    97   |    5    |  1,982   |  18.2%    |
|  2019   |    8,235   |   22.6   |    97   |    4    |  1,693   |  20.6%    |
|  2020   |    7,694   |   21.0   |   321   |    3    |  1,451   |  18.9%    |
|  2021   |    4,438   |   12.2   |    61   |    1    |    824   |  18.6%    |
|  2022   |    3,670   |   10.1   |    96   |    1    |    557   |  15.2%    |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Well it's pretty obvious I think. The numbers here reflect the yearly     |
|  average player numbers perfectly. Our player numbers go down because we   |
|  don't attract enough new players. Simple as that. During our best years   |
|  in terms of player numbers we also attracted the most new players. The    |
|  only way to turn things around is to either prevent people from leaving   |
|  or attracting more new players. I think our playerbase already is very    |
|  loyal compared to many other games, and while we always can improve when  |
|  it comes to encouraging existing players to stay around, and think the    |
|  easiest way to increase player numbers is to increase the number of new   |
|  players.                                                                  |
|                                                                            |
|  We have enough data to show that around 15-16% of new characters do       |
|  leave the tutorial, and it's quite obvious if we look at the average      |
|  player number data that at least some of them remain and become more      |
|  permanent additions to our community.                                     |
|                                                                            |
|  But why aren't we attracting more players then? Why has it gone down      |
|  so dramatically the last couple of years? Well, the main reason is        |
|  because the Google Chrome App Store, which was our main way to get new    |
|  players in recent years, has been discontinued by Google. So, we need     |
|  a new way to attract players. Now, the Google Chrome Store still exists,  |
|  however not for _apps_, and Genesis was an app, so we don't exist there   |
|  anymore. At least not for Windows and Mac users, which of course are      |
|  operating systems many of our new players used. Google started talking    |
|  about removing Google Chrome Apps back in 2016, and there has been a lot  |
|  of dates changing back and forth, but it's clear that the popularity of   |
|  the Google App Store was already declining in 2017, and it just went      |
|  downhill from there as Google announced it would be shut down. Support    |
|  for Windows and Mac Google Apps finally seems to have ended in 2021.      |
|  I _think_ our app can still be downloaded on Chromebooks, but as I        |
|  understand it, the Chrome App Store will eventually be discontinued       |
|  for Chromebooks as well. There is, however, conflicting information       |
|  regarding this.                                                           |
|                                                                            |
|  Now, there are of course other factors that affect our new player         |
|  numbers, but there is no doubt Google's decision and the fall of          |
|  their Chrome App Store is the main reason for our decline as well.        |
|                                                                            |
|  The current plan to get new players is to use Patreon.com to collect      |
|  funds in order to spend the money on paid ads. We think this is the way   |
|  that could have the most immediate impact, however, this project has      |
|  been delayed due to all sorts of things. All from legal to technical      |
|  reasons, as well as me (Cherek) simply not having time for it, both due   |
|  to RL stuff and the many other global changes we have worked on lately.   |
|  I will really aim to make it a priority for 2023, though, beacause I am   |
|  very convinced that it WILL turn things around when it comes to player    |
|  numbers. The data above clearly shows that it will work, we just need     |
|  to make it happen. We've also made very good progress on this project     |
|  recently, so I really do think it could happen pretty soon.               |
|                                                                            |
|  That said, ALL players and wizards can help turning things around.        |
|  Simply reach out to Greneth, the liege of the 'Promotion' domain, and     |
|  offer to help out.                                                        |
|                                                                            |
|  Okay, let's move on to the guild statistics.                              |
|                                                                            |
|  NOTE: In the statistics below, the Blue and Red Dragomarmies count as     |
|  one guild. (Not sure if Rangers still have factions, but if they do,      |
|  they also cound as one guild. Also, since we allow players to idle        |
|  indefinitely in Genesis these numbers should be taken with a BIG grain    |
|  of salt. A guild with a player, or players, that idle 24/7 may seem very  |
|  active while in fact they are not. On the other hand, guilds that have    |
|  rules preventing their members from idling may look quite inactive, but   |
|  the players are actually always active when they do play. There are of    |
|  course other factors in play as well, for example some guilds are much    |
|  more restrictive about taking on new members than others, and some guilds |
|  only allow players of specific race(s) and/or align.                      |
|                                                                            |
|  That said, the below statistics still give an indication about which      |
|  guilds are the most popular, even if it's not the whole truth.            |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|             Average number of active players per guild per day             |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       2021 Ranking                    2022 Ranking                         |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       1.   Mercs     (6.945)          1.    Vampires  (6.546)              |
|       2.   Vampires  (6.553)          2.   -Mercs     (4.365)              |
|       3.   DArmy     (1.752)          3.    Knives    (1.662)              |
|       4.   SoHM      (1.728)          4.    SoHM      (1.434)              |
|       5.   Knives    (1.546)          5.    Glads     (1.282)              |
|       6.   Rangers   (0.967)          6. +*^Monks     (1.140)              |
|       7.   Glads     (0.936)          7.    Ogres     (1.013)              |
|       8.   Angmar    (0.928)          8.    Angmar    (0.434)              |
|       9.   Clerics   (0.763)          9.    Knights   (0.365)              |
|       10.  Neidar    (0.689)          10.   Archers   (0.321)              |
|       11.  Knights   (0.585)          11.   Cadets    (0.288)              |
|       12.  Calians   (0.516)          12.  !DArmy     (0.255)              |
|       13.  Ogres     (0.510)          13.   Rangers   (0.252)              |
|       14.  Cadets    (0.456)          14.   Calians   (0.214)              |
|       15.  Archers   (0.439)          15.   PoT       (0.134)              |
|       16.  Monks     (0.428)          16.   Union     (0.120)              |
|       17.  Union     (0.310)          17.   Neidar    (0.109)              |
|       18.  WoHS      (0.260)          18. @!Clerics   (0.090)              |
|       19.  Kender    (0.285)          19.   WoHS      (0.090)              |
|       20.  PoT       (0.184)          20.   Kender    (0.057)              |
|       21.  Academy   (0.115)          21.   Mages     (0.052)              |
|       22.  Mages     (0.096)          22.   Academy   (0.016)              |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|               + Biggest APH gain (Monks at +0.712)                         |
|               - Biggest APH loss (Mercs at -2.580)                         |
|               * Biggest growth   (Monks at 266% growth)                    |
|               @ Biggest decline  (Clerics at 89% decline)                  |
|               ^ Biggest rise     (Monks up 10 ranks)                       |
|               ! Biggest fall     (DArmy and Clerics down 9 ranks)          |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  First of all, a BIG thank you to Baz for crunching the numbers for both   |
|  the guild data above and the align data below. This is the most time      |
|  consuming part of the statistics in this post, so, getting some help was  |
|  very nice.                                                                |
|                                                                            |
|  Now, what do we make of this? Well, Mercs are Vampires are still          |
|  clearly ahead of the pack, but the Merc numbers have dropped quite a      |
|  bit. With changes taking place in the Vampire guild during the second     |
|  half of 2022 I also expect their numbers for 2023 to be quite different.  |
|  But, for now, Mercs and Vampires continue to rule Genesis. However,       |
|  Vampires are also the number one idler's guild in Genesis (by design),    |
|  so it's no wonder their numbers will always be high. Speaking of idling,  |
|  the Dragonarmy guilds appear to have lost a lot of players, but,          |
|  in 2021 they had one specific player who idled 24/7 for most of the       |
|  year, so, that probably added 1.0 to their numbers for that year. Monks   |
|  are clearly the big winner otherwise, leapfrogging many guilds in the     |
|  list above, but whether that is due to actual activity or having a few    |
|  big idlers in the guild is of course unclear. Like I said, these stats    |
|  should be taken with a grain of salt, as idling players have a big        |
|  effect on the stats.                                                      |
|                                                                            |
|  That said, one thing that is pretty clear is that the caster guilds       |
|  aren't doing too well right now. This is of course likely due to all      |
|  the magic changes that we've been doing in 2021 and 2022. The magic       |
|  recode did finish in 2022, so we might hope for more positive caster      |
|  numbers in 2023.                                                          |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|                       Guild activity by align - 2022                       |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Good-aligned         Neutral-aligned       Evil-aligned             |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Knights  0.365       Vampires 6.546          Knives   1.662         |
|        Archers  0.321       Mercs    4.365          Angmar   0.434         |
|        Rangers  0.252       SoHM     1.434          DArmy    0.255         |
|        Calians  0.214       Glads    1.282          PoT      0.134         |
|        Neidar   0.109       Monks    1.140          Mages    0.052         |
|        Clerics  0.090       Ogres    1.013                                 |
|        Kender   0.057       Cadets   0.288                                 |
|                             Union    0.120                                 |
|                             WoHS     0.090                                 |
|                             Academy  0.016                                 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Total:    1.408                16.204                2.537                |
|  Total %:   7.0%                80.4%                 12.6%                |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|                       Guild activity by align - 2021                       |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Good-aligned         Neutral-aligned       Evil-aligned             |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        Calians  0.516       Mercs    6.945          DArmy    1.752         |
|        Neidar   0.689       Vampires 6.553          Angmar   0.928         |
|        Clerics  0.763       SoHM     1.728          Knives   1.546         |
|        Rangers  0.967       Glads    0.936          Mages    0.096         |
|        Archers  0.439       WoHS     0.260          PoT      0.184         |
|        Knights  0.585       Cadets   0.456                                 |
|        Kender   0.285       Monks    0.428                                 |
|                             Union    0.310                                 |
|                             Ogres    0.510                                 |
|                             Academy  0.115                                 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Total:    3.805                18.241                4.506                 |
| Total %:  14.3%                68.7%                 17.0%                 |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Neutral guilds continue to attract the most players, as always. This is   |
|  something that has become more and more clear each year. A big part of    |
|  the reason is of course that we have more neutral guilds in total and     |
|  that several of the neutral guilds are free to join and leave. The main   |
|  guilds new players choose are also neutral (cadets, academy, glads,       |
|  mercs, and sometimes SoHM). Then we also have idling vamps on top of      |
|  that, so it's no wonder the statistics make it seem like almost everyone  |
|  are in neutral guilds.                                                    |
|                                                                            |
|  It would be interesting to see how the numbers would look if we could     |
|  remove all characters under a certain age and the idling-time for vamps   |
|  from the data. However, that is currently not possible, so we'll never    |
|  it's hard to guess how those numbers would look.                          |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|                           New wizards per year                             |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  2019: 4                                                                   |
|  2020: 12                                                                  |
|  2021: 7                                                                   |
|  2022: 8                                                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  Look at that, one more compared to 2021! These numbers of course also     |
|  go hand in hand with our average player numbers, so no surprise that it   |
|  was similar to 2021.                                                      |
|                                                                            |
|============================================================================|
|                            WIZARD ACCOMPLISHMENTS                          |
|============================================================================|
|                                                                            |
|  Just like 2021, 2022 has also been a busy year in the wizard world.       |
|  Trying to create a list of EVERYTHING that changed or been added to the   |
|  game is of course always an impossible mission, and especially years like |
|  2021 and 2022, when so much has happened. In the list below I have tried  |
|  to group together a number of changes, since so much has happened that    |
|  making a seprate entry for each change/addition would make this post      |
|  extremely long (and it's not short as it is). I also left out some very   |
|  minor changes, but I think I've managed to list all of the big important  |
|  stuff and most of the smaller stuff.                                      |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  First Quarter 2022                                                        |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  - SYSTEM UPDATED: The new magic system is launched. This means that       |
|    the spell enhancers launched in late 2021 will be used to boost the     |
|    effectiveness of many spells. But the change also includes a new way    |
|    to calculate mana, changes to how maintained spells work, a much better |
|    way to calculate and use resistances to magic, individual adjustments   |
|    to all our magic guilds, and much more. Changes, additions, and         |
|    tweaks to this new magic system continue for most of year, but I will   |
|    not post everything here as it would just flood the 'Wizard             |
|    accomplishments' section. Let's just say that this was a massive        |
|    project that took a lot of time and effort. Arman and Zizuph handled    |
|    most of this and deserves a big thank you, but several other wizards    |
|    were also involved, including myself, Ckrik, Cotillion, and others.     |
|    I'd also like to say thank you to all players who helped test things    |
|    and provide feedback. (Arman, Zizuph)                                   |
|  - AREA UPDATED: Avenir receives a number of updates. There are minor      |
|    updates to the Ziggurat, the Holm, and a larger update to the           |
|    Utterdark, as the entire area is reshaped. (Lilith)                     |
|  - AREA UPDATED: It's now possible for players to sail to the Rift of      |
|    Sybarus using their own/chartered ships. (Lilith, Arman, Tapakah)       |
|  - AREA UPDATED: A number of updates to northern Terel. For                |
|    example it's now possible to repair armours in the town of Last and     |
|    the doctor there has learned how to heal broken bones.                  |
|  - NEW QUEST: A new quest is added to northern Terel. (Lilith)             |
|  - AREA UPDATED: Faerun expands with a small new area. (Brine)             |
|  - SYSTEM UPDATED: Three new imbuements appears, along with a number of    |
|    other imbuement-related updates. (Ckrik)                                |
|  - A long standing problem with armours weighs is fixed. (Cotillion)       |
|  - NEW HOUSE: A townhouse in Calathin is sold to a player for a huge       |
|    pile of platinum coins. This is the second house that is created and    |
|    sold in our new housing system. (Lilith, Zizuph)                        |
|  - Guild racks are updated so it's now easier to sort out broken           |
|    items. (Ckrik)                                                          |
|  - NEW BOSS: The legendary Terel boss Benton returns to Genesis and he     |
|    brings lots of new top-tier equipment with him. (Lilith)                |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Second Quarter 2022                                                       |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  - Arman steps down as Arch of Balance and is replaced by Ckrik.           |
|  - NEW GUILD: The Saurian layman/racial guild opens somewhere in Kalad,    |
|    which allows players to become lizard-people. Sssssssweet!              |
|  - NEW QUEST: Goblins are sighted near Port McDunn and a new quests is     |
|    added as well. (Tapakah)                                                |
|  - AREA UPDATED: Various updates to Khalakhor. This includes changes to    |
|    the Cadu bard and undertaker, new wildlife (including fish) outside     |
|    Port McDunn, a new herb shop in Eil Galaith, as well as minor changes   |
|    to the village of Baile Ashlagh. (Tapakah)                              |
|  - Genesis is mentioned on the well-read website Lifehacker.com, which is  |
|    the second time in just a few years that we get some major press (the   |
|    other of course being the PC Gamer article).                            |
|  - The undead race is updated so they will now also suffer fatigue when    |
|    moving around, although still less than living beings. (Ckrik, Cherek)  |
|  - A problem with temporary unarmed combat skill not actually affecting    |
|    combat is fixed. (Cotillion)                                            |
|  - The player behind Finwe passes away and a statue of him is created in   |
|    the memorial Garden. Upon hearing that Finwe was seriously ill and had  |
|    been taken to a hospital our community rallied to sign an e-card for    |
|    him. In less than 48 hours over a hundred different players wrote       |
|    personal greetings to Finwe, however, he passed away before he could    |
|    get it. We often squabble and complain about game-related stuff in      |
|    our community, but when it really mattered everyone put aside their     |
|    differences and joined forces, proving what a tight-knit community we   |
|    really are. When something like this happens, it affects us greatly,    |
|    and it shows how deeply we really do care for each other.               |
|    And that's one of the best things with Genesis - the lifelong           |
|    friendships. (Cherek)                                                   |
|  - AREA UPDATED: Both big and small updates to many places in Avenir and   |
|    Terel. The largest change is the new additions to the Fort Sybarus area |
|    that includes new amenities in the form of a post office, a place for   |
|    weapon and armour care, a barber who works with facial har, and a       |
|    dining hall. (Lilith)                                                   |
|  - NEW-ISH QUESTS: Two very old quests in the Shire that have been closed  |
|    for a long time reopens. (Tapakah)                                      |
|  - AREA UPDATED: A new direct route from Sparkle to Port McDunn is added   |
|    and other shiplines within Khalakhor are also rerouted. (Tapakah)       |
|  - SYSTEM UPDATED: Many players discover that it's possible to almost      |
|    instantly travel between many places using the very fast ships on the   |
|    relatively new seas of Genesis. In order to make travel by private ship |
|    a little less unrealistically instant, 'sailing events' are added,      |
|    which slow things down a bit. (Arman, Cherek)                           |
|  - NEW SYSTEM: A pilot study for a potential new 'stumble' system takes    |
|    place north of Port McDunn. (Tapkah)                                    |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Third Quarter 2022                                                         |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  - NEW GUILD: Half-orcs, a new racial guild for humans and goblins opens   |
|    in Faerun. (Nerull)                                                     |
|  - NEW SYSTEM: Another pilot study for a potential new bank fees system    |
|    takes place in the lands of Khalakhor. (Tapakah)                        |
|  - Various updates to Krynn and Ansalon guilds. This includes hightened    |
|    security for Vingaard Keep and the Towers of High Sorcery, uniform      |
|    updates for the Dragonarmies, as well as some quality of life updates   |
|    to the Raiders. (Vitwitch)                                              |
|  - NEW AREA: Coille Leathann, a forest northeast of Sa Morgan in Khalakhor |
|    can now be visisted. (Zhar)                                             |
|  - GUILD UPDATE: The Ranger guild is recoded and updated to the 'new'      |
|    guild standard. This is quite the milestone, because the huge project   |
|    to update all our guilds to use the same system was started back in     |
|    2008. Prior to this, all different guilds used different systems, which |
|    created a number of bugs and balance issues. It took 14 years, but we   |
|    got it done eventually! Zizuph and Varian were the lucky(?) wizards     |
|    who got to finish this project with the Ranger guild, but during the    |
|    last 14 years countless of wizards have worked on updating our many     |
|    guilds. (Zizuph, Varian)                                                |
|  - The player behind Raelle passes away and a statue of her is created in  |
|    the memorial Garden. This time, since Raelle was in an accident, there  |
|    was no time to rally the community, but Raelle, just like Finwe, was a  |
|    belowed member of our community and had there been something we could   |
|    have done to help her in any little way, I am 100% sure everyone would  |
|    have pitched in. Sadly, it all happened very quickly and there was      |
|    nothing anyone could have done. (Cherek)                                |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|  Fourth Quarter 2022                                                       |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  - BOSS UPDATED: The nazgul encounter is changed to provide a more         |
|    balanced challenge for all types of players. A new piece of equipment   |
|    is also added. (Zizuph, Varian, Ckrik)                                  |
|  - Rooms that allow for free emote are changed so only those with <options |
|    intimate on> can enter. (Zizuph, Cherek)                                |
|  - AREA UPDATED: Various minor updates to Khalakhor, including more        |
|    locations to find herbs, and an update to the fishmonger of Port        |
|    McDunn. (Tapakah)                                                       |
|    NEW BOSS: A great serpent is added to Emerald, along with some nice     |
|    equipment. (Velith)                                                     |
|   - Casters get improved an improved spell-targetting system. (Zizuph)     |
|  - SYSTEM UPDATED: The weight of various spell components are reduced,     |
|    making life a little easier for many spellcasters. (Zizuph)             |
|  - GUILD UPDATE: An old issue with the Drow guild which caused many        |
|    houses to become unjoinable is fixed. (Zizuph, Nerull)                  |
|   - Old issues with Morgul Mage steeds fixed. (Zizuph)                     |
|  - SYSTEM UPDATED: There is a global update to combat that aims to slow    |
|    down fights and make it more similar speed-wise to how it was before    |
|    the so called 'white hits change'. That change brought many positive    |
|    things to the game, but the fast combat was an unwanted side effect     |
|    that now has been fixed. This change also included tweaks to evade,     |
|    stun and stoneskin abilities since a design problem was identified.     |
|    It took a while, but the major white hits combat change that was        |
|    launched in 2021 now finally works more like it  was intended from      |
|    the start. (Zizuph, Ckrik)                                              |
|  - Greneth becomes the liege of Calia.                                     |
|  - EVENT: The wonderfully quirky Advent Calendar Event is held for the     |
|    second year in a row. (Gorboth)                                         |
|  - EVENT: The Wheel-of-Fun lottery is back in Sparkle and Noxxio is        |
|    crowned the luckiest player in Genesis. (Cherek)                        |
|                                                                            |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                            |
|  Wow, that was a lot of stuff. It took me quite some time to just write    |
|  the list of everything that has been done, and the effort involved of     |
|  actually DOING all these things is of course immense. A BIG thank you to  |
|  all wizards who use their valuable free time to improve our game.         |
|                                                                            |
|============================================================================|
|                        WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?                          |
|============================================================================|
|                                                                            |
|  It's become a tradition that I end my State of the Donut posts by         |
|  making a number of guesses (not predictions or goals) about what I think  |
|  will happen during the follow year. So, let's start by checking how I     |
|  did with my guesses for 2022:                                             |
|                                                                            |
|  - The new magic system will be completed, and magic and melee will be     |
|    much better balanced and fun.                                           |
|  * Yay, this did happen.                                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  - The Ranger guild will be recoded.                                       |
|  * Two in a row!                                                           |
|                                                                            |
|  - Two or more layman guilds will open.                                    |
|  * We did get one (Saurians (and a racial guild (half-orcs). So, I am      |
|    going to count that as half a point.                                    |
|                                                                            |
|  - Two or more houses will be added.                                       |
|  * One new house was added, so I am giving myself half a point for this    |
|    one too.                                                                |
|                                                                            |
|  - The Petron page will go live and we will have continuous ads for        |
|    Genesis running.                                                        |
|  * I really did think this would happen, but so many other things got      |
|    in the way. Goes to show how unreliable Genesis development can be      |
|    sometimes. We made lots of progress, though, so it's close.             |
|                                                                            |
|  - We will get more new players during 2022 compared to 2021.              |
|  * Nope. I of course made this guess based on the fact that I thought      |
|    we would have the Patreon thing up and running. Without that, more      |
|    players was pretty unlikely. Wasn't THAT far off, though.               |
|                                                                            |
|  - There will be at least three new areas of decent size added to          |
|    the game.                                                               |
|  * Okay, maybe we did not get three new areas 'of decent size', but we     |
|    got a lot updated areas, a number of smaller new areas, as well as new  |
|    quests and bosses. I am giving myself a point for this guess, because   |
|    we did get a lot of new content.                                        |
|                                                                            |
|  Last time I got 4 of 10 (40%) of my guesses right, this time I got        |
|  4 of 7 (57%) of my guesses right. Not great, but it seems like I am       |
|  at least getting better. Let's see if I can improve on that for 2023.     |
|                                                                            |
|  These are my somewhat educated GUESSES for 2023:                          |
|                                                                            |
|  - The Patreon page will go live and we will have continuous ads for       |
|    Genesis running (I'll eat my hat if it doesn't happen this time).       |
|                                                                            |
|  - The Genesis races will be rebalanced.                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  - Death will become kinder.                                               |
|                                                                            |
|  - The size differences between players will be smaller.                   |
|                                                                            |
|  - At least one new racial, layman, or craft guild will open.              |
|                                                                            |
|  - At least two new clubs will open.                                       |
|                                                                            |
|  - We will get more new players during 2023 compared to 2022.              |
|                                                                            |
|  - At least one well-known player will dramatically declare that they      |
|    will leave the game.                                                    |
|                                                                            |
|  Gorboth used to end many of his posts with his classic slogan "Onward     |
|  and upward", but I still haven't thought of a slogan for myself. So, I'll |
|  just end this post here. It's long enough. Perhaps that should be my new  |
|  slogan? "It's long enough now". Hmm. I don't know. I think I can come up  |
|  with something better. Maybe that's the one? "Let's do better". I'll try  |
|  it out.                                                                   |
|                                                                            |
|  Let's do better!                                                          |
|                                                                            |
|  Cherek, The Respectable Keeper of Genesis                                 |
|                                                                            |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+



Thalric
Rising Hero
Posts: 343
Joined: 14 Jun 2016 16:34

Re: State of the Donut - 2022

Post by Thalric » 09 Feb 2023 22:43

You forgot to update the "hope of new players" from 22 compare to 21, to 23 compared to 22.

Beside that, I hope that you will soon be able to track character alignment, and not supposed guild alignment.
I doubt that a whole lot of people in a neutral guild are actually neutral.

User avatar
Cherek
Site Admin
Posts: 3612
Joined: 04 Mar 2010 04:36

Re: State of the Donut - 2022

Post by Cherek » 09 Feb 2023 23:15

Thalric wrote:
09 Feb 2023 22:43
You forgot to update the "hope of new players" from 22 compare to 21, to 23 compared to 22.

Beside that, I hope that you will soon be able to track character alignment, and not supposed guild alignment.
I doubt that a whole lot of people in a neutral guild are actually neutral.
Ops. And another year is wrong too. I'll fix that.

User avatar
gorboth
Site Admin
Posts: 2352
Joined: 03 Mar 2010 20:51
Location: Some old coffin

Re: State of the Donut - 2022

Post by gorboth » 10 Feb 2023 00:41

What an absolutely fantastic read!

Kudos to Cherek for his ongoing leadership, engagement of talented staff, and creative vision for the game. Kudos to all the wizards mentioned who contributed to a very productive year, indeed. And, Kudos to all the players who continue to keep the fires burning in the mortal world.

What a warm feeling it is to read about another great year as the donut turns.
G.
Mmmmmm ... pie ...

Budwise
Veteran
Posts: 213
Joined: 01 Jul 2010 10:17

Re: State of the Donut - 2022

Post by Budwise » 10 Feb 2023 08:28

Nice one. 2022 guild activity by alignment, Calians aren't mentioned
and Rangers figure twice, so guess that's a booboo.

User avatar
Cherek
Site Admin
Posts: 3612
Joined: 04 Mar 2010 04:36

Re: State of the Donut - 2022

Post by Cherek » 11 Feb 2023 20:41

Budwise wrote:
10 Feb 2023 08:28
Nice one. 2022 guild activity by alignment, Calians aren't mentioned
and Rangers figure twice, so guess that's a booboo.
Whops, obviously one of the Rangers should be a Calian. Updated now, and we also fixed another small error in the guild activity by align section. Turns out neutral guilds dominate even more now, when the numbers are double and triple-checked.

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