Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

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Dan
Wanderer
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Joined: 25 Jan 2015 10:38

Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Dan » 12 Apr 2021 16:51

Excellent answers Arman, thank you.

I don't feel the current system is 40:40:20 atm (WH/SP/LSp), it feels more like 70:20:10 of what i can see on the npcs i kill, but its excellent if you're aiming for the 40:40:20 then just need to figure out why its not the way it is right now.

Run simulations on mobs and note down the damage source? then tone down the WH modifier until you get it to hit the 40:40:20? Ofcourse with different values compared to how dps oriented a guild is and what other things are eating its CAID.

Carnak
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Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Carnak » 12 Apr 2021 19:18

Dan wrote:
12 Apr 2021 09:14
I see your math skills Amberlee are not the best either then.

If you have 100% hp, prior to the changes, slashes would take approx 65-75% of that health pool off in a fight, leaving white hits 25-35%.

Now slashes takes off approx 15-25% and white hits 75-85% - how did this NOT effect slash becoming weak - hence every1 and his uncle going for rescue/block/merc skills/evasion type/move behind type of abilities now that dps abilities plain _suck_

So defacto DPS CAID got bigtime reduced, and non-DPS types got defacto increased CAID - which I doubt has been reflected in the guilds balance sheets accordingly making a huge imbalance in the system.
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With this disclaimer out of the way, lets jump right into it. You used the BDA attack for your comparison, so I will as well. Though I don't have the specifics off the top of my head.

As I don't know the specifics of the DA special, and we have set white hit CAID to 25, let us just for the sake of argument say that it is 25 CAID. (Probably best if we don't use any real values anyway :P)

If we assume that your guild experience etc has reached its maximum, and that you are a member of the higher echelons of the guild, so that you have achieved the maximum of your guild special. (Not sure if this is necessary for BDA, but using it as an example variable)

In this example (important to know this is just an example) you'll do ~50% of all your damage with the Slash and ~50% with your white hits. (No layman was present in these estimations)

Let us assume for the sake of argument, that the slash has twice the hit chance and has double the combat rotation.

So.. with entirely arbitrary numbers, lets try to get some working calculations..

Spec: 25 CAID * 100 / HitChance(40) * Time(4) / Time(2)
Wep: 25 CAID * 100 / HitChance(20) * Time(2) / Time(2)

- Carnak: Spec deals 125 and white hits also deal 125.
- Player: So with a special which hits half as often only does the same damage as white hits!?
- Carnak: Well, since hit chance is twice as high, this is the effect. Over time, we hit more often though.

Over time this is what happens:
Spec: 125 * HitChance(40) / 100 (Only hit 40%) = 50
Wep: 125 * HitChance(20) / 100 (Only hit 20%) = 25

- Player: But now Spec is higher?! And thats not what I see when I play!
- Carnak: This is because we are only part way with the calculations. In effect, your special also launches half as often in this example due to the combat rotation.

Spec: 50 * Time(2) / Time(4) = 25

- Carnak: We are back to it dealing 25! The same value it started at.
- Player: I dont believe it! It must be a lie..

Now, this is just an over simplification, no numbers are true values, and functions are fictional. But this is a simple example of how it may work.

If your special does less damage per hit, it is because it either in fact does less damage, or due to a variable like hit which allows it to deal the same amount of damage over time. There are also a huge number of variables, such as your stats, guild experience, special specific limitations, skills etc. etc. which affect your specials or white hits.

I am always open to the fact that there may be a bug or miscalculation somewhere which needs to be fixed. But so far my tests have not suggested that there is one. So if you do find one, that would make my job easier. It is however quite difficult to verify such an issue on your end since you don't have all the information.

My initial guess, is that if you feel that your special is useless, it is because you lack guild experience.

Carnak
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Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Carnak » 12 Apr 2021 19:43

Dan wrote:
12 Apr 2021 16:51
Excellent answers Arman, thank you.

I don't feel the current system is 40:40:20 atm (WH/SP/LSp), it feels more like 70:20:10 of what i can see on the npcs i kill, but its excellent if you're aiming for the 40:40:20 then just need to figure out why its not the way it is right now.

Run simulations on mobs and note down the damage source? then tone down the WH modifier until you get it to hit the 40:40:20? Ofcourse with different values compared to how dps oriented a guild is and what other things are eating its CAID.
Seems I missed your latest posts. Indeed, the maximum potential ratio is around something like 40:40:20. We have run a few hundred hours of simulations, exactly the simulations you propose with a neutral, non-modified special on varying sizes of controlled NPCs. So far the simulations suggest that 1 caid white hits == 1 caid special attack, just like the calculations say.

The variation is in the variables, your stats, the targets stats, your guild experience, guild specific limitations, the special hit chance etc. The three villains which affect the special most are skills, guild experience and whether your special / white hits utilizes a weapon (being looked into).

If this is the general consensus of players in any specific guilds, that specials are so under powered compared to white hits, it may be a problem with the specific guild specials themselves. If these players are able to gather statistics to prove this assumption, it would be great. (I dont think this is the case, but always open to be proven wrong).

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Arman
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Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Arman » 13 Apr 2021 02:45

Dan wrote:
12 Apr 2021 16:51
Excellent answers Arman, thank you.

I don't feel the current system is 40:40:20 atm (WH/SP/LSp), it feels more like 70:20:10 of what i can see on the npcs i kill, but its excellent if you're aiming for the 40:40:20 then just need to figure out why its not the way it is right now.

Run simulations on mobs and note down the damage source? then tone down the WH modifier until you get it to hit the 40:40:20? Ofcourse with different values compared to how dps oriented a guild is and what other things are eating its CAID.
If you are only using slash, then it may feel like that. Not all of a DAs '40 caid' sits in slash, but in your dragon specials.

I would also like to caveat the 40:40:20 ratio example is also under optimal conditions. White hits at '40 caid' are very dependent on weapon skill and quality. If your skill is poor and you are running around with a newbie knife, you will get non-existent combat aid from white hits. Occupational and layman caid are based on full access to abilities... and in some cases, like with the mercenaries, they arguably don't get access up to the full caid cap available to occupational guilds... which is a deliberate design decision.

Dan
Wanderer
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Joined: 25 Jan 2015 10:38

Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Dan » 13 Apr 2021 04:05

Thank you Carnak and Arman, its great discussing this with you both.

I see your math, and i agree with the logic behind, i just don't see this in the real test scenarios i've been doing, however with that said, i've not tested enough due to corona. I will try to get back to you when i am able to do more testing, as the heart and idea and concept sounds correct, just the feeling when using it doesnt strike me hitting close to those numbers - in reality it've been felt like 80:20, and i've got about 150- fantastics xp while in BDA so i think i am at guild max capability. It feels like 1 white hit is equal to 1 special while you have 5-8 white hits pr special ratio giving this 80:20 ratio, however that may be two handed weapon skill that then practically doubles your dps, but you say thats also taken into account.
So if the idea behind is correct, but it doesnt feel correct, my guess is there's some oversight in the formula somewhere where I think the most probable oversight could very well be 'time' factored in correctly, or dual wield.

Nerull
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Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Nerull » 13 Apr 2021 08:25

One way to test it is to kill, let's say 100 of an npc that is considered to be about static in setup as possible (if you can figure that out ingame). Not a necessity, but it helps making that factor as static/the same as possible. And same with everything else, same level of power, weight, weapons etc.

Kill 100 of those without the use of specials, then measure the average killingtime. Then repeat the experiment with 1 special.

While 100 is a very low number, it should give you a very rough idea of where stuff lands. Increase it to 1000 for added accuracy.

If the reality doesn't reflect the numbers (not known to mortals) in live tests, then there is a chance that something is off. Only Carnak et al can verify this ofcourse, but they certainly could use the data to verify.

Fairlight
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Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Fairlight » 13 Apr 2021 10:29

(not known to mortals)
Easy now!

Dan
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Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Dan » 14 Apr 2021 06:18

Spec: 125 * HitChance(40) / 100 (Only hit 40%) = 50
Wep: 125 * HitChance(20) / 100 (Only hit 20%) = 25

Is what you wrote, against smaller npc's like the veteran plains guards i more see 60% hit chance with my weapons so it ends up like:

Spec: 125 * HitChance(40) / 100 (Only hit 40%) = 50
Wep: 125 * HitChance(60) / 100 (Only hit 60%) = 75

Add to that, I wield 2 good quality 1 handers, and with an imbue have sup guru two handed so my assumption is i almost have 2 swings pr round - lets say i have 80% of the times then it becomes:

Spec: 125 * HitChance(40) / 100 (Only hit 40%) = 50 (remember due to time its 25)
Wep: 125 * HitChance(60) / 100 (* 2 weapons * 80 /100) (80% swing chance with DW) = 120
Wep: 125 * HitChance(50) / 100 (* 2 weapons * 80 /100) (80% swing chance with DW) = 100
Wep: 125 * HitChance(40) / 100 (* 2 weapons * 80 /100) (80% swing chance with DW) = 80
Wep: 125 * HitChance(30) / 100 (* 2 weapons * 80 /100) (80% swing chance with DW) = 60

So my feelings from the plains killing with approx 80% coming from white hits I think is the right feeling, i think they are at 50% and I can find many examples on NPCs that are up there, and many who are nearer to your original description like trolls and such - but if i choose lightly defended npcs or people as targets i do up to 80% from white hits now.

Carnak
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Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Carnak » 14 Apr 2021 14:09

Dan wrote:
14 Apr 2021 06:18
Spec: 125 * HitChance(40) / 100 (Only hit 40%) = 50
Wep: 125 * HitChance(20) / 100 (Only hit 20%) = 25

Is what you wrote, against smaller npc's like the veteran plains guards i more see 60% hit chance with my weapons so it ends up like:

Spec: 125 * HitChance(40) / 100 (Only hit 40%) = 50
Wep: 125 * HitChance(60) / 100 (Only hit 60%) = 75

Add to that, I wield 2 good quality 1 handers, and with an imbue have sup guru two handed so my assumption is i almost have 2 swings pr round - lets say i have 80% of the times then it becomes:

Spec: 125 * HitChance(40) / 100 (Only hit 40%) = 50 (remember due to time its 25)
Wep: 125 * HitChance(60) / 100 (* 2 weapons * 80 /100) (80% swing chance with DW) = 120
Wep: 125 * HitChance(50) / 100 (* 2 weapons * 80 /100) (80% swing chance with DW) = 100
Wep: 125 * HitChance(40) / 100 (* 2 weapons * 80 /100) (80% swing chance with DW) = 80
Wep: 125 * HitChance(30) / 100 (* 2 weapons * 80 /100) (80% swing chance with DW) = 60

So my feelings from the plains killing with approx 80% coming from white hits I think is the right feeling, i think they are at 50% and I can find many examples on NPCs that are up there, and many who are nearer to your original description like trolls and such - but if i choose lightly defended npcs or people as targets i do up to 80% from white hits now.
Dont get too bogged down in the formulas, they are entirely fictional, just there to show how hit may trick the players into thinking that specials deal less than they actually do.

I have run a test with slash on targets half the size of my test subject (half the size because you seem to be fighting smaller foes), and the ratio for slash / white hit damage is roughly correct. I am saying roughly because I ran a limited test of 40 minutes in combat so there'd be a small margin of error there.

Ill run some further tests just to be sure, as you seem certain of an error, but it is unlikely at this point that these tests will reach a different conclusion.

Yeren
Beginner
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Re: Underlying cause and proposed solution to broken trust

Post by Yeren » 17 Apr 2021 23:47

Thanks for this information.
I think we as players would all applaud to the 40:40:20 scheme.

Since I left BDA I must say that I saw huge disturbances in the force and my initial assessment was close to Dan’s. Now it gets more evened out.

One thing however boggles me, it comes from Armans note:
“Occupational and layman caid are based on full access to abilities... and in some cases, like with the mercenaries, they arguably don't get access up to the full caid cap available to occupational guilds... which is a deliberate design decision.”

Do I understand correctly that the design of mercenaries is such as not to achieve the CAID limit? Or do I have this wrong?

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