Genesis Forums

Genesis Community,

At the beginning of each year, it has been my tradition to take stock of
the playerbase by analyzing the data we have collected via the Genesis
Census. At the beginning of this year, I did not have the time or energy to
make that happen. Now, however, I find myself quite in the mood to take
time and show you how things have been looking.

The Cenesus data is generated by taking a "snapshot" of the playerbase once
per hour each hour of each day. This snapshot counts the number of people
logged into the game, and excludes all wizards and linkdead players. In
other words, it is *not* the number you see when you type who. That number
*does* include wizards and linkdead players. The census, therefore,
represents the actual people who are sitting, playing the game, at any
given moment.

When the census was first begun, there were insufficient data available to
make it possible to analyze year-to-year statistics. Now, however, the
census has been running for two and a half years, and we have the
capability to see bigger pictures in the numbers.

The Census began in October of 2007. Here are the numbers from that period.


+------------------------+
| |
| End of 2007 |
| |
+---------+---+----+-----+
| 22.5 | | | |
| 22.0 | | | |
| 21.5 | | | |
| 21.0 | | | |
| 20.5 | | | |
| 20.0 | | | |
| 19.5 | | | |
| 19.0 | | | | Average players per hour in this
| A 18.5 | | | | first year of census activity:
| V 18.0 | | | X|
| G 17.5 | | | X| 15.51
| 17.0 | | | X|
| P 16.5 | X| | X| (incomplete sample of only 2.5 months)
| E 16.0 | X|XX | XX X|
| R 15.5 | X|XXX | XX X|
| 15.0 | X|XXX |XXXXX|
| H 14.5 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|
| O 14.0 | X|XXXX|XXXXX|
| U 13.5 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| R 13.0 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| 12.5 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| E 12.0 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| A 11.5 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| C 11.0 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| H 10.5 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| 10.0 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| W 9.5 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| E 9.0 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| E 8.5 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
| K 8.0 |XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|
+---------+---+----+-----+
| Month | |Nov |Dec |
+---------+---+----+-----+


2007 marked a shift in the Administration of Genesis. I came on board as
AoP, and began a playerbase initiative which was aimed at bringing back
players to the game who had been deleted in the past for misbehavior that
we now deemed forgivable. The results were dramatic. In conjunction with
the reopening of the much-missed Army of Angmar, 2008 would show our
highest playerbase numbers on census record:


+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| |
| Entire Year - 2008 |
| |
+---------+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+---+
| 22.5 | | | | | | |X |X | | | | |
| 22.0 | | | | | | X |XX |X | | | | |
| 21.5 | | | | | | XX|XX |X | | | | |
| 21.0 | | | | | | XX|XX X|XXX | | | | |
| 20.5 | | | | | | XX|XX X|XXX | | | | |
| 20.0 | | | | | | XX|XX X|XXXX | | | | |
| 19.5 | | | | | | XX|XX X|XXXX | | | | |
| 19.0 | | | | X | | XX|XXXX|XXXX | | | | |
| A 18.5 |X | | | X | | XX|XXXX|XXXX | | | | |
| V 18.0 |X | | | X | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | | | |
| G 17.5 |X | | | X | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | | | |
| 17.0 |XX | X | | X | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | | | |
| P 16.5 |XX | X | |XXX | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | | | |
| E 16.0 |XX X| XX | |XXX | | XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | | | |
| R 15.5 |XX X| XX | X|XXX | X| XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | | | |
| 15.0 |XX X|XXX | X|XXXX| X| XXX|XXXX|XXXXX| | | | |
| H 14.5 |XXXXX|XXX | X|XXXX| X| XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | | | |
| O 14.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|X XX|XXXX|XX X| XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XX | | | |
| U 13.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|X XX|XXXX|XXXX|X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX | X |X | |
| R 13.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XX XX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |X | X|
| 12.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |X |X X|
| E 12.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX |XX |XXX|
| A 11.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX X|XXX|
| C 11.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX X|XXX|
| H 10.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXX X|XXX|
| 10.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| W 9.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| E 9.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| E 8.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| K 8.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
+---------+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+---+
| Month |Jan |Feb |Mar |Apr |May |Jun |Jul |Aug |Sep |Oct |Nov | |
+---------+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+---+
| |
| Average players per hour = 15.80 |
| |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+


By contrast, 2009 looks like a much less impressive year. But, as the
numbers show, it was considerably more stable. The highs were not as high,
but the lows likewise were not as low. As such, 2009 showed a slight
growth in the playerbase from 2008.


+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| |
| Entire Year - 2009 |
| |
+---------+-----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+---+
| 22.5 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 22.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 21.5 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 21.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 20.5 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 20.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 19.5 | | X| | | | | | | | | | |
| 19.0 | | X| | | | | | X| | | | |
| A 18.5 | | XX| | | X | | | X| | | | |
| V 18.0 | | XX| X | | XX | |X | XX| |X | | |
| G 17.5 | | XXX| X | X | XX X| |X | XX| |X | | |
| 17.0 | X| XXX|X XX | X | XXXX|X |XX | XXX| X |X | | |
| P 16.5 | X| XXX|X XX |XX |XXXXX|XXXX|XXX | XXX| X |XX | | |
| E 16.0 | X X| XXX|X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXX | XXX|X XX|XX | | |
| R 15.5 | XX X| XXX|X XXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX| XXX|X XX|XX | | |
| 15.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|X XXX|X XX|XXXX|X | |
| H 14.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X XX|XXXX|X | |
| O 14.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|X XX|XXXX|X |X |
| U 13.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX |X |
| R 13.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX |X |
| 12.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX |X |
| E 12.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX X|XXX|
| A 11.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XX XX|XXX|
| C 11.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| H 10.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| 10.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| W 9.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| E 9.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| E 8.5 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
| K 8.0 |XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXXX|XXXX|XXXXX|XXX|
+---------+-----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+---+
| Month |Jan |Feb |Mar |Apr |May |Jun |Jul |Aug |Sep |Oct |Nov | |
+---------+-----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+-----+---+
| |
| Average players per hour = 16.10 |
| |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+


In both years, 2008 and 2009, the data show November to be markedly worse
than other months in terms of playerbase activity. More years will need to
pass before we can say with any confidence that this is a cyclical trend,
but it is at least something that rises to the surface of these preliminary
number fields.

The following chart shows comprehensive analysis of the available data,
including activity averages for each of the 24 hours of the day, and each
of the 7 days of the week.


+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Comparing player activity over two time periods: |
| A: Jan 01 2008 - Dec 31 2008 |
| B: Jan 01 2009 - Dec 31 2009 |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| Hour | A | B | %increase| | Weekday | A | B | %increase|
+-------+-------+-------+----------+ +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 00.00 | 19.62 | 19.39 | -1.18 %| | Sunday | 16.49 | 16.83 | +2.04 %|
| 01.00 | 17.23 | 16.10 | -7.02 %| | Monday | 15.43 | 15.76 | +2.11 %|
| 02.00 | 16 | 14.20 | -12.64 %| | Tuesday | 15.81 | 16.10 | +1.83 %|
| 03.00 | 15.42 | 13.62 | -13.17 %| | Wednesday | 15.98 | 16.63 | +3.89 %|
| 04.00 | 14.60 | 12.82 | -13.82 %| | Thursday | 15.22 | 15.51 | +1.87 %|
| 05.00 | 13.08 | 11.48 | -13.89 %| | Friday | 15.54 | 15.86 | +2.03 %|
| 06.00 | 11.78 | 9.82 | -19.84 %| | Saturday | 16.12 | 16.01 | -0.67 %|
| 07.00 | 10.53 | 9.30 | -13.27 %| +-----------+-------+-------+----------+
| 08.00 | 10.07 | 10.19 | +1.16 %| |
| 09.00 | 10.19 | 11.38 | +10.47 %| |
| 10.00 | 10.95 | 12.99 | +15.70 %| +--------------------------------------+
| 11.00 | 11.58 | 13.79 | +15.96 %| | - - - Field Sizes - - - |
| 12.00 | 12.18 | 14.27 | +14.61 %| | Number of days in Period A: 365 |
| 13.00 | 13.56 | 15.37 | +11.75 %| | Number of days in Period B: 364 |
| 14.00 | 15.21 | 16.61 | +8.41 %| +--------------------------------------+
| 15.00 | 16.70 | 17.68 | +5.58 %| |
| 16.00 | 18.19 | 18.34 | +0.81 %| |
| 17.00 | 18.95 | 18.79 | -0.89 %| +--------------------------------------+
| 18.00 | 20.13 | 20.15 | +0.11 %| | Overall Summary |
| 19.00 | 21.56 | 21.60 | +0.19 %| +--------------------------------------+
| 20.00 | 23.12 | 24.03 | +3.81 %| | Overall average for Period A: 15.80 |
| 21.00 | 23.90 | 25.76 | +7.21 %| | Overall average for Period B: 16.10 |
| 22.00 | 24.06 | 26.33 | +8.62 %| | |
| 23.00 | 22.41 | 24.50 | +8.54 %| | Overall increase/decrease: +1.867 % |
+-------+-------+-------+----------+--+--------------------------------------+


It is interesting to note that gametime 2:00 through 7:00 show a marked
decline in activity between the two years. This time period represents when
most European players are asleep, and the evening (prime playing time?) for
American players. The numbers alone would seem to indicate that we have lost
American players. Likewise, the most marked increase are from the gametime
hours from 9:00 through 13:00 which represent sleeping hours for Americans but
worktime hours for most Europeans. Could this mean that we have become more
popular for casual gaming at the office in Europe? Also of interest is that
Wednesday has shown the highest increase of activity. Could this mean that the
Market Quest is in fact a real draw?

Some might look at these numbers and scoff, saying that we are only seeing
changes of less than a full %, and that this is not statistically
significant. This, however, is untrue. Statistical significance is only
called into question when you analyze a sample of a given population. The
beauty of the Genesis census is that we are not looking at a sample. Rather,
we are looking at the "true" population - the "entire" population rather
than a sample. As such, everything is of statistical significance. These
charts are derived from 8736 independant shapshots per year. So, we can
rest confident in the knowledge that each change we see, no matter how
small, is a real and true change in the palyerbase.

Now, the goal in the past, has always been to try to double the playerbase
each year. It is clear now that this goal has not even come close to being
reached. Am I disheartened? By no means! With the move to the New Gizmo,
the amount of energy, enthusiasm, and productivity on the part of both
wizards and players has been very exciting. I can now put forth our goal
in specific terms! So here it is:

To reach, by the end of 2010, a stable playerbase of 30 players per
hour.

This would, in fact, be a doubling of the current playerbase. It would not
mean that you would usually log in to see 30 players. At peak hours you
might log in to see 80 players, and at low hours, perhaps only 15. But the
*average* would raise to 30. It is currently stable at around 15-16.

Promotional considerations are in the works for this game. When we have
more and official word on that, I shall come to you with guns blazing.

Onward and upward!
G.

Forum Users,

The above note from the common board does not read clearly in a non-fixed type font. If you want to see it more clearly, I suggest you copy it, paste it into a word processing application, select all, and then change the font to a fixed-type font (Courier or Courier New, for example.)

G.

Here is the tables copied in and marked as code which should help.
Nice work G

A lot of work to create a nice ASCII chart like that. Can't exactly stick a screenshot of an excel chart into the mud..
Did you setup the program to create these tables automatically or do you take the data and do it manually?

Either way very impressive stuff.

Thank you for the note... the upcoming promo ideas sound very promising.

Let me offer an interpretation...

Unemployment has risen in most European countries in the past 2-3 years. Bearing this in mind, consider also the notable increase in "office hours" playtime. So...

Economy goes down - Genesis goes up

I wish there was a way to post "code" in the forum without the scrollbars and small window. Anyone know how? Back on the other forum, this was not the way it worked, was it? Maybe that was Eden ... hmmm ... In any case, I remember I used to be able to post large blocks of fixed-type font in the code windows and it would all be displayed in a visible chunk, rather than scrolling small windows.

Poop!

G.

Gorboth. If you look at Tarax' note, you can see he did the whole thing as code for you. Some forum wiz-kid correct me if I am wrong here, but what you do is you copy paste all the code text you want into the "message body" window here. Then whichever part is ASCII taken from Genesis for example, you can select/highlight and click on "code" (being the 5th button from the left just above the entry field here.) Hopefully this is correct & helpful.

cheers

hektor wrote:Gorboth. If you look at Tarax' note, you can see he did the whole thing as code for you. Some forum wiz-kid correct me if I am wrong here, but what you do is you copy paste all the code text you want into the "message body" window here. Then whichever part is ASCII taken from Genesis for example, you can select/highlight and click on "code" (being the 5th button from the left just above the entry field here.) Hopefully this is correct & helpful.

cheers

Maybe I wasn't clear in my question above. I've always known that you can use the "Code" button above to past things in fixed-type font so that it appears lined up properly as in the game. The issue I have, is that here in this particular forum, it doesn't just print it in a window as-is, but instead creates small windows with scrollbars, so you have to scroll up and down to see the entire chart. This is, at least, what I see when I look at what Tarax did above. I see windows with scrollbars, and you have to move up and down to see the entire chart. Not particularly useful when trying to get a look at statistics. You want the entire chart to fit on the screen at once (or at least *I* do.) Now, if others don't see those windows with scrollbars, then I'll be delighted, because that will imply that I have my settings set to something I don't want for this forum, and that I can probably change them. Is this the case? Do others see the windows with the scrollbars on Tarax's post above?

G.

I see Tarax's charts in big windows with no scroll bars. Not sure why though.

I can see Tarax' post just fine, with no scrollbars or whatever.

I'm using Firefox, newest version with a plenty wide screen, if that gives a clue?